Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Slip Ahead of Inventory Report

Natural gas prices moved lower on Wednesday ahead of Thursday’s inventory report from the Department of Energy. Expectations are for a 48 Bcf build in stockpiles according to survey provider Estimize. According to a National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) report, the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal for the next 2-weeks, on the East and West Coast with cooler than normal weather in the South.  There is one tropical storm that has a 10% chance of turning into tropical cyclones according to a NOAA forecast in the next 48-hours. U.S. Production declined in the latest week. LNG Exports decline week over week.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices eased slightly on Tuesday and remained below resistance, near the 10-day moving average at 3.67. Additional resistance is seen near the July highs, near 3.82. Support is seen near the July lows at 3.52. Prices are forming a bull flag continuation pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is neutral and turning negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram is printing near the zero-index and is poised to cross below reflecting accelerating negative momentum.

LNG Exports Decline

U.S. LNG exports decrease week over week. According to the EIA twenty LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 75 Bcf departed the United States between July 1 and July 7, 2021. Sabine Pass LNG received authorization from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to introduce fuel gas and commission the fuel gas system for Train 6, currently under construction.