Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Summer Heat Lifts Gas, Crude Stuck Below Key MAs

WTI Crude Oil: Iranian Supply Risk and Technical Ceiling Limit Upside

Fundamentals:
WTI crude remains pressured by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and supply risk. The prospect of renewed Iranian exports—estimated between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels per day—continues to weigh on sentiment as nuclear talks show limited progress. Meanwhile, U.S. reluctance to escalate sanctions on Russia and slow-moving ceasefire talks with Ukraine add a layer of uncertainty to global flows. Demand-side signals are mixed, with China’s cooling economic activity raising broader consumption concerns.

Technical Analysis:
WTI futures are capped below the 50-day simple moving average at $63.87, with near-term resistance forming just under that threshold. Support is visible around $61.89, helping to contain recent pullbacks. The inability to reclaim the 50-day MA reflects weak momentum, and price action suggests a consolidative bias unless a catalyst drives a break above the resistance zone.

Brent Crude Oil: Demand Worries in China Keep Bulls on the Defensive

Fundamentals:
Brent faces downward pressure from deteriorating demand indicators in China. Industrial output and retail sales growth have slowed, raising concerns about the near-term outlook for crude imports. While the temporary 90-day tariff reprieve between the U.S. and China offers limited support, it has not yet translated into material demand recovery. Iranian supply prospects and cautious investor positioning in response to geopolitical developments further restrain bullish sentiment.

Technical Analysis:
Brent futures are struggling to break above a key resistance zone between $66.74 and $68.69, aligned with the downward-sloping 50-day simple moving average at $67.41. This level has consistently capped rallies. Price remains boxed in a sideways range, with no clear directional signal unless the market pushes above or below these levels decisively. Momentum remains neutral to bearish in the short term.

Natural Gas: Summer Heat Premium Returns as Futures Rebound Sharply

Fundamentals:
Natural gas futures rebounded sharply as traders positioned ahead of rising cooling demand heading into summer. The recent downturn was viewed as a buying opportunity, particularly with weather forecasts pointing to higher temperatures in major U.S. population centers. Market participants are anticipating stronger power sector demand for gas, helping to lift sentiment after a series of weak sessions.

Technical Analysis:
June natural gas futures surged from the $3.03–$2.87 support band, closing at $3.405. The rebound marked a technical reversal after four losing sessions. The next resistance lies near the 50-day simple moving average at $3.64. With momentum indicators turning upward and strong buying interest evident at key support, the near-term setup favors a continuation higher, contingent on sustained temperature-driven demand.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.