NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Taking Out .6349 Changes Main Trend to Up

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6314, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6328.
James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is trading flat against the U.S. Dollar early Monday as the currency remains underpinned by fears a weakening U.S. economy could encourage the U.S. Federal Reserve to trim its benchmark interest rate 25-basis points at its October 29-30 policy meeting. Lower rates will make the U.S. Dollar a less-desirable currency.

At 05:53 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6314, down 0.0001 or -0.02%.

Last week, the NZD/USD primarily benefitted from Fed speculation and a weaker U.S. Dollar after a string of weaker-than-expected economic data. However, Friday’s solid U.S. Non-Farm Labor report helped dampen but not eliminate the possibility of a Fed rate cut. This is helping to influence today’s early trade.

There are no major reports out of New Zealand or the United States on Monday. However, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 14:00 GMT, which could fuel a volatile response.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6349 will change the main trend to up. The downtrend will resume if .6204 fails as support.

The minor range is .6204 to .6337. Its 50% level or pivot at .6270 is support.

The short-term range is .6451 to .6204. Its retracement zone at .6328 to .6357 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally on Friday at .6337. A sustained move over the upper or Fibonacci level of the range at .6357 will indicate strength.

Daily NZD/USD (Short-Term)

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6314, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at .6328.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6328 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the uptrending Gann angle at .6244. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this angle. If it fails then look for the selling to extend into the pivot at .6270.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6328 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out .6337 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. A trade through .6349 will change the main trend to up. This could extend the rally into the Fibonacci level at .6357, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at .6366. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Side Notes

The NZD/USD may have to pullback into .6270 before taking another run at .6349.

Don't miss a thing!
Discover what's moving the markets. Sign up for a daily update delivered to your inbox

Latest Articles

See All

Expand Your Knowledge

See All
The content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party's services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party's website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.
This website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.