NZD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to .6821 Pivot Sets the Tone; Major Risk Under .6773
The New Zealand Dollar is inching higher early Thursday following a minor reversal to the downside the previous session. The three days of choppy trading this week suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The catalysts behind the price action are the risk of early Federal Reserve rate hikes and the potential impact of the new omicron coronavirus variant on the country’s economic recovery.
At 05:25 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6815, up 0.0006 or +0.08%.
The Kiwi was undermined by another bout of risk aversion which saw Wall Street swing lower overnight and longer-term Treasury yields drop sharply as the market prices in the risk of a more aggressive U.S. policy tightening.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .6773 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
A move through .7219 will change the main trend to up. This is highly unlikely, but there is room for a minor change in trend, a shift in momentum and a normal 50% to 61.8% retracement of its recent sell-off.
The minor trend is also down. The new minor bottom is .6773.
The first minor range is .6773 to .6868. The NZD/USD is currently straddling its pivot at .6821.
The second minor range is .7053 to .6773. Its 50% level at .6913 is the next potential upside target.
Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast
The direction of the NZD/USD on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to .6821.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under .6820 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the minor bottom at .6773.
Taking out .6773 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the November 2, 2020 main bottom at .6589 the next potential target.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over .6821 will signal the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into .6868.
The minor high at .6868 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with .6913 the next likely upside target.
