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James Hyerczyk

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower early Monday as traders positioned themselves ahead of Wednesday’s release of the September quarter inflation figures. Economists expect the consumer price index to have risen 0.6 percent in the latest quarter, taking the annual rate to 1.4 percent, down from 1.7 percent in the June quarter.

At 04:49 GMT, the NZD/USD is trading .6313, down 0.0025 or -0.40%.

On Friday, the NZD/USD surged to its highest level since September 18 after President Trump announced a partial trade deal between the United States and China.


Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The trend changed to up on Friday when buyers took out the previous main top at .6337. It was reaffirmed later in the session when .6349 was taken out.

A trade through .6354 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through .6277 will change the main trend to down.

The short-term range is .6451 to .6204. Its retracement zone at .6328 to .6357 is resistance. This zone stopped the rally on Friday at .6354.

The minor range is .6204 to .6354. Its retracement zone at .6279 to .6261 is the next downside target.


Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6314, the direction of the NZD/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at .6294.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over .6294 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this can create enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the short-term 50% level at .6328, followed by the downtrending Gann angle at .6341.

Overtaking .6341 could extend the rally into the minor top at .6354, followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at .6357.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under .6294 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further break into the minor 50% level at .6279, followed closely by the main bottom at .6277.

Taking out .6277 will change the main trend to down. This could trigger a quick drop into the minor Fibonacci level at .6261.

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