NZD/USD Forecast August 8, 2017, Technical Analysis

The New Zealand dollar continues to fall, as we have broken well below the 0.74 handle on Monday. This is a rather ominous sign, as the market had been rather resilient. Remember, the New Zealand dollar tends to be highly sensitive to the overall attitude of commodity markets, and that means that you should be watching such commodities as wheat, milk, and other softs. One of the easiest ways to keep an eye on the overall attitude of the market is the CRB Index, which offers an overall view on commodities.

US dollar resiliency

I believe the part of this is due to the US dollar resiliency, which most traders had written off as dead. However, Friday saw a significant jobs number that of course will attract a lot of attention and therefore suggest that perhaps interest rate hikes are still possible. With this in mind, I believe that we do continue to go lower but I recognize that every large figure will of course offer a certain amount of support. Eventually we will find longer-term support, but I think that the market will probably go down to the 0.73 level over the next couple of sessions. Rallies are to be sold, and it’s not until we break above the 0.7425 level that I would be convinced of some type of rebound in the New Zealand dollar.

NZD/USD Video 08.8.17