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Barry Norman
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NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis December 21, 2012, Forecast
Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD continues to gather momentum even after a disappointing GDP release and business confidence print this morning. New Zealand’s gross domestic product grew 0.2 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, half the 0.4 percent pace forecast in a Reuters survey and spurred only by a pick-up in construction activity. The local economy has been showing signs of weakness through the middle of the year, with unemployment rate rising to a 13-year high 7.3 percent, and the figure cemented the view that future growth is hanging on the Canterbury reconstruction effort.

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Investors continue to wait for US legislators to cast aside their partisan brinkmanship and reach a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, which will probably send the world’s biggest economy back into recession. Talks between the Democrat White House and the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives have deteriorated in the past 24 hours, according to a Bloomberg report.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data December 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.4% 

 

0.3% 

   

 

 

NZD

 

 

Business Confidence 

22.70

 

 

 

26.40 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Bulletin 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Dec. 21

01:45

 

NZD

 

 

Visitor Arrivals (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

-1.7% 

 

 

 

04:01

 

GBP

 

 

GfK Consumer Confidence 

 

 

-25 

 

-22 

 

 

 

06:00

 

NZD

 

 

Credit Card Spending

 

 

 

 

-0.9% 

 

 

 

09:00

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Dec 21 16:30 Italy  

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