Semtech Price Forecast: Bullish Trend Targets $197.55

Long-Term Breakout Establishes Bullish Structure

Semtech Corporation (SMTC), a U.S. semiconductor company, completed its first pullback in late-July and it was followed by a long-term base breakout in mid-April, resulting in a higher swing low of $103.10. That decline completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance and found support near the long-term uptrend line and 200-day moving average. A peak of $177.35 was reached in mid-June and it followed by a long-term bullish base breakout in mid-April on a rally above the 2021 high of $94.92.

Recent Breakout Leaves Support in Focus

Following the July low, SMTC advanced to a high of $170.43 last week after breaking out of a small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern on Tuesday. It has since weakened and started to retrace its prior advance on Monday. Key dynamic support levels are represented by the 20-day moving average at $140.52 and the 50-day moving average near $133.87, which were recently reclaimed, while improving momentum is indicated by the 20-day moving average recently crossing above the 50-day moving average for the first time since July 15. The 20-day moving average will soon converge with the top boundary line of the triangle, thereby adding to its significance as a support zone.

Bullish Structure Points Toward Higher Targets

The long-term bullish trend structure was retained during the July correction, and the subsequent recovery supports a continuation of that trend. If the current short-term pullback is followed by signs of strength, initial new high targets include the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the prior decline at $197.55 and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $223.24.

Rising Channel Expands Upside Potential

A long-term rising trend channel also shows potential upside targets near the upper boundary of the pattern. That boundary area was confirmed as resistance during the formation of consolidation near the highs in June, while the lower boundary was confirmed during the July decline.

Earnings Reinforce Recent Momentum

Recent bullish momentum was supported by reported earnings for the Q2 fiscal 2027 on August 25. It resulted in a higher swing low of $115 in August and the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern. In addition, that resulted in another reclaim of both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

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