Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Dip as OPEC Production and Kurdistan Supply Weigh

Oil prices dip as supply concerns resurface

Crude oil futures slipped in early Monday trade, pulling back from a new seven-week high at $66.42. Traders attributed the move to increasing concerns around global supply growth. The resumption of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region and expectations for another OPEC+ production hike weighed on sentiment.

At 10:05 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $64.69, down $1.03 or -1.57%.

Kurdistan pipeline restart and OPEC+ output plan weigh on sentiment

Iraq’s oil ministry confirmed the weekend restart of pipeline flows from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region to Turkey’s Ceyhan port, marking the first crude movement in 2.5 years. The deal could return up to 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the market.

Meanwhile, three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ is expected to approve another production increase of at least 137,000 bpd this weekend, continuing its efforts to reclaim market share.

Technical levels in focus as WTI pullback eyes key support zone

Despite Monday’s retreat, the uptrend remains intact with a higher-high, higher-low formation. Traders are eyeing technical support around the long-term 50% retracement at $64.21, followed by the 50-day moving average at $63.73 and the 200-day moving average at $63.09. A sustained move above the $66.42 peak could trigger a push toward a major resistance zone between $68.35 and $69.34.

Russia, Iran sanctions and China stockpiling add upside risk

While supply additions dominate headlines, traders remain cautious about geopolitical risks. Ukraine’s drone campaign has disrupted up to 25% of Russia’s refining capacity in recent weeks, and Russia has responded with a partial diesel export ban. Simultaneously, the United Nations has reinstated sanctions on Iran, raising concerns over potential supply constraints.

China’s continued crude stockpiling may also support the market. Reuters reports that China imported roughly 990,000 bpd above domestic needs through the first eight months of the year, suggesting ample buying capacity remains.

Saudi Aramco to raise Asia crude prices but hikes may be limited

Saudi Arabia is expected to raise November official selling prices (OSPs) for Asia by 20–40 cents per barrel across its crude grades, reflecting recent strength in Middle East benchmarks. However, rising supply and higher freight costs are expected to limit the scale of those increases. The cash Dubai premium recently hit a six-month high of $3.63 per barrel before easing on the Kurdistan export news.

Oil prices forecast: Bullish trend intact, but upside capped by supply headwinds

While short-term supply pressure from Kurdistan and OPEC+ output hikes has tempered bullish momentum, the technical setup still favors buyers on dips into the $63.73–$63.09 range.

With geopolitical tensions and China’s buying still in play, crude remains supported. A sustained breakout above $66.42 could spark an upside run toward $69.34. The outlook remains cautiously bullish pending OPEC+ execution and any escalation in supply risks.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.