Oil News: Crude Oil Futures Jump 2% as Drone Strikes and OPEC+ Fuel Supply Fears

Crude Oil Rallies as Drone Strikes and Geopolitical Jitters Jolt Supply Fears Back to Life

Light crude is pushing higher on Monday, up around 2%, as a fresh round of supply concerns gives buyers something to work with after a bruising four-month losing streak — the longest since 2023. The glut narrative that’s dominated for weeks is taking a back seat, at least for now, as real-world disruptions remind traders that supply risk never really left the building.

At 10:42 GMT, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.60, up $1.05 or +1.79%.

Pipeline Attack Puts Russian Exports in the Spotlight

The weekend’s headline-grabber: a Ukrainian drone strike knocked out a mooring at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal, temporarily halting exports through a route that handles about 1% of global supply. Chevron, a CPC shareholder, says loadings have resumed at Novorossiysk, but the damage underscores a vulnerability that markets had been pricing out. Russian energy infrastructure remains in the crosshairs, and disruptions can hit without warning.

Meanwhile, hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal — which had weighed on prices over the past two weeks on fears of Russian barrels flooding back into the market — are starting to look premature. Uncertainty is creeping back in, and with it, a little risk premium.

OPEC+ Holds the Line, Venezuela Adds to the Tension

OPEC+ did its part to steady the ship, agreeing to keep production targets unchanged for Q1 2026. After months of glut fears dominating the conversation, the decision not to chase market share offered some relief. As LSEG’s Anh Pham noted, it helped stabilize expectations around supply growth — a modest win for bulls who’ve been on the defensive.

Then there’s Venezuela. Trump rattled traders over the weekend by suggesting the airspace above the South American producer should be considered closed. He walked it back on Sunday — “Don’t read anything into it” — but the damage was done. Venezuela’s a meaningful producer, and any hint of military escalation adds real barrels to the risk premium, even if the threat stays rhetorical.

Can Bulls Break Through Resistance — Or Will the Rally Fizzle?

Crude has crossed back above short-term support at $59.23–$58.44 and is now testing the 50-day moving average at $60.11 — a level that’s capped gains since late October. A sustained push through there opens the door to the 200-day at $61.11, which would mark a more meaningful shift in trend and could trigger another leg higher.

For now, buyers are leaning into the supply headlines. But the rally needs follow-through. If geopolitical noise fades and oversupply fears creep back, this bounce could stall out quickly. The next few sessions will tell us whether this is a real sentiment shift — or just a short squeeze running on fumes.

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