Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Climbing Higher in Reaction to Weaker US Dollar

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures are edging higher on Tuesday as traders try to claw back steep losses from the previous session. The price action suggests traders are taking their cues from the U.S. Dollar.

On Monday, crude oil prices soared earlier in the session on expectations of a recovery in the global economy after the U.S. Senate approved a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill over the weekend. Fears of an oil supply disruption from Saudi Arabia after an attack on its oil facilities also boosted prices early in the session.

On 10:12 GMT, May WTI crude oil is trading $65.67, up $0.74 or +1.14% and May Brent crude oil is at $69.06, up $0.82 or +1.20%.

Prices came off their highs on Monday as Treasury yields rose, dragging up the U.S. Dollar and dampening demand for dollar-denominated crude oil. Receding fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East also weighed on prices.

Yemen’s Houthi Forces Fire Drones at Saudi Oil Infrastructure

On Monday, Brent crude oil prices rose above the psychological $70 a barrel level after Yemen’s Houthi forces fired drones and missiles at the heart of the Saudi oil industry, including a Saudi Aramco facility at Ras Tanura vital to petroleum exports.

Officials in Riyadh said there were no casualties or loss of property and prices ended the day lower. Still, the United States expressed alarm at “genuine security threats” to Saudi Arabia from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis and elsewhere in the region, and said it would look at improving support for Saudi defenses.

Short-Term Outlook

OPEC+’s decision to maintain current output cut levels throughout April will continue to provide support for crude oil prices. That’s support, not a catalyst for an upside breakout. Therefore, we expect buyers to continue to come in on the dips until OPEC and its allies meet again in a month to decide policy.

Also on the bullish side, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday that President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package will provide enough resources to fuel a “very strong” U.S. economic recovery. If she’s right then look for demand to grow with it.

But will increased demand actually drive prices higher? That’s a good question. With prices trading higher than pre-pandemic levels, increased demand may have already been priced into the market.

Meanwhile, later today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its latest inventories figures at 21:30 GMT. U.S. crude oil and refined product stockpiles likely fell last week, with distillate inventories seen drawing down for a fifth straight week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.