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Barry Norman

Precious Metals Fundamental Analysis – August 31, 2015 – Forecast - Gold, Silver & Platinum
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold added $5.70 to trade at 1127.70 while Silver followed along adding 23 points to 14.44. Platinum added $1.35 holding above the 1000 level at 1007.35. Gold prices were slightly higher on the London spot market on Friday, but the prospects of a stronger dollar and further good economic news out of the US will likely keep a cap on the price of the metal in the coming weeks.

Gold missed out on the big gains across commodities on Thursday, as the positive US economic data that pushed oil and metals higher dulled traders interest in safe haven assets and increased the likelihood of a September interest rate rise.

On Friday gold traded slightly higher on a day when many commodities appeared to lack firm direction.

US rates will likely remain the big focus for gold buyers, with US payroll numbers next week a key point for the market. Gold doesn’t pay interest or dividends so suffers in comparison to yield-bearing assets when rates climb. Higher rates would also likely boost the dollar, making the greenback-denominated gold more expensive for most buyers.

The market has gradually moved toward seeing a US rate rise more likely in December. This view seemed to be holding up on Friday, despite the slew of positive US data on Thursday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Jul)

-0.2%

1.3%

-2.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.6%

2.2%

-3.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Jul)

1.21

1.19

1.19

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)

0.0%

-0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul)

1.6%

1.1%

0.9%

 

 

  CHF

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)

1.2%

0.9%

1.2%

   

  CHF

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.4%

-0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Aug)  

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q2) 

2.9%

1.7%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q2)  

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q2)  

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

 

 

  EUR

 

German CPI (MoM) (Aug)  

0.0%

-0.1%

0.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jul)

1.2%

1.3%

1.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jul)

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Goods Trade Balance (Jul)

-59.12B

 

-62.26B

 

 

  USD

 

Personal Spending (MoM) (Jul)

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

   

  CAD

 

RMPI (MoM) (Jul)

-5.9%

-4.0%

0.2%

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, August 31, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Summer Bank Holiday

  NZD

 

Building Consents (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

-4.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

1.1%

 

 

  AUD

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Company Gross Operating Profits

 

 

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jul)

 

 

0.4%

 

 

  CHF

 

KOF Leading Indicators (Aug)

 

 

99.8

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Aug)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Current Account (Q2)

 

 

-17.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Chicago PMI (Aug)

 

54.5

54.7

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep

 

 

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