S&P 500: CPI Miss Lifts Index; On Holding, Intel Rally, Apple and Nvidia Lag

Dow Opens Higher as Softer CPI Fuels Rate-Cut Bets; S&P 500 Futures Hold Key Support

US stocks opened higher Tuesday after July’s inflation report came in slightly cooler than expected, reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained around 100 points in early trade, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. S&P 500 E-mini futures were last up 23.25 points, or 0.36%, at 6,423.

Will the Fed Move in September After CPI Eases?

The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-over-year in July, below the 2.8% forecast. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed 3.1%, slightly above the 3% estimate.

CME FedWatch now shows a 91% chance of a September rate cut, up from 85% before the release, with increased odds for additional moves in October and December.

President Donald Trump extended a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for Chinese goods, offering short-term relief, though analysts warn elevated valuations leave the market vulnerable to negative surprises.

S&P 500 Futures Technical Picture

S&P 500 futures remain in an uptrend, holding well above the 50-day moving average at 6,241. Immediate resistance sits at the recent high of 6,468.50, with initial support at 6,381 and stronger support near 6,354.

A deeper pullback could retest 6,239.50 — a level that aligns with the rising 50-day average at 6241 and prior breakout zone. Longer-term support remains at the 200-day moving average of 6,029.41.

Early Sector and Stock Leaders

Tech was mixed in early trade. Intel climbed 4% after Trump reversed his stance on CEO Lip-Bu Tan, calling him a “success” days after calling for his resignation. Nvidia slipped slightly after Trump said he was open to allowing the company to sell a downgraded Blackwell AI chip to China. Apple fell nearly 1% after Elon Musk threatened legal action over alleged antitrust violations tied to his Grok AI app.

In other movers, Hanesbrands surged over 42% on reports of a nearly $5 billion buyout by Gildan Activewear, which fell more than 5%. On Holding gained 11% after beating revenue estimates and raising guidance.

Sinclair jumped 18% on a strategic review that could lead to a merger or spinoff. Circle Internet Group advanced 7% after posting a 53% year-over-year revenue increase in its first public earnings report.

Next for Traders

Attention now shifts to Thursday’s Producer Price Index for further inflation clues before the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting later this month. If data continues to point toward easing inflation, technical support in the S&P 500 futures could help sustain the rally — but stretched valuations mean traders should watch resistance levels closely for potential rejection points.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.