The silver market has fallen somewhat significantly early in the day, but has seen a complete turnaround as we continue to see the 200-Day EMA affect the markets.
Silver has shown itself to be somewhat resilient after initially falling during the trading session on Monday, only to see buyers come back into the picture and lift the market at the 200-Day EMA. Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where the market will continue to see more of a “buy on the dips” scenario, and of course still have a strong negative correlation to the US Dollar Index, and if the US dollar starts to lose strength, it makes sense that precious metals will rally.
That being said, the market is hanging around between the 200-Day EMA underneath and the 50-Day EMA above, getting a bit squeezed in the general vicinity. It’s also worth noting that we are right around the 50% Fibonacci level, so that of course all comes into play as well as far as longer-term traders are concerned. Ultimately, silver is also probably going to have quite a bit of external influence coming from the gold market, which of course looks as if it is trying to pick up speed backup as well.
In the short term, I would anticipate quite a bit of volatile noise, but ultimately, I do think that we have to make a bigger decision. If and when we do, then it’s likely that the market really searches the takeoff, in one direction or the other. If we can break the 50-Day EMA to the upside, then I think the $24 level gets targeted. On the other hand, if we break down below the recent swing low, then the $22 level will be threatened.
Any move below the $22 level could open up a significant amount of selling pressure, perhaps sending this market all the way down to the $20 level over the longer term. That would of course be our complete capitulation of the overall trend, therefore I think you would see US dollar strength across the board. More likely than not, we will see an attempt to recover, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it is going to be an easy move, nor that it would be without significant amounts of volatility along the way.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.