Silver (XAG) Forecast: $50.02–$51.07 Sets the Tone for Renewed Selling or Next Breakout

Silver Settles Higher After Early Drop, But Fails to Break Resistance

Silver (XAG/USD) ended the week in positive territory, settling at $48.92, up from Monday’s low of $45.55. The rally reflected a shift in positioning after the Federal Reserve’s latest rate move and gold’s midweek rebound. Still, the late-week rejection below resistance leaves sellers in control for now, with the short-term trend skewed to the downside.

Fed Cut Triggers Rebound, But Powell Offers No Clear Signal

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, moving the benchmark range to 3.75%–4.00%. While this initially supported silver and other precious metals, Chair Jerome Powell offered no commitment to further easing. That uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Market odds for another cut by December dropped from 91% to 63%, boosting the U.S. dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher — both bearish inputs for non-yielding assets.

Gold’s Bounce Lifts Silver, But Fundamentals Lag Behind

Silver’s rebound was largely driven by a recovery in gold prices, which rallied after hitting a three-week low. Gold’s strength helped silver stabilize midweek, but silver itself lacked strong demand catalysts. Broader market flows into equities and out of defensive assets limited follow-through. Silver stalled into Friday at $49.38, just below the October 23 high of $49.46 — confirming that sellers are defending strength.

Technical Picture: Resistance at $50.02–$51.07 Still Intact

Silver’s weekly rally failed just beneath a key retracement zone between $50.02 and $51.07. That area continues to act as the near-term ceiling. Without a breakout through that band, rallies are likely to be sold. On the downside, the 50-day moving average at $45.43 remains the main area of support. It continues to attract dip-buyers, but momentum is weakening. A break below it could expose deeper levels near $44.22 and $41.40.

Structural Drivers Bullish, But Macro Forces Still Weighing

Silver continues to benefit from long-term tailwinds: chronic supply shortages and strong industrial demand tied to solar, EV, and AI infrastructure. Forecasts from major institutions still call for silver above $50 over the next 1–2 years. However, those fundamentals remain in the background. Right now, the market is being driven by Fed policy, real yields, and global risk appetite.

Outlook: Bearish Bias Holds Below $51.07, While Support Levels Come Into Focus

Silver’s weekly close above $48 signals some underlying support, but until the metal clears the resistance band between $50.02 and $51.07 with sustained buying, the short-term bias remains bearish. Sellers continue to fade strength near resistance, and bulls have yet to prove they can regain control of the trend. Markets are now focused on upcoming inflation data and Fed commentary for the next directional catalyst.

A break below $45.55 — the recent swing low — would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. That move could accelerate selling pressure toward the retracement support zone between $41.40 and $38.31. Below that, the 52-week moving average at $35.69 stands as a major long-term support level and trend gauge.

The key question heading into next week: Is it still too early to buy strength, or is patience warranted for a move into the value zone between $41.40 and $35.69? With no clear bullish catalyst in sight and resistance still firmly intact, traders may be better served waiting for price to enter deeper support before initiating directional exposure.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.