Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Market Slips as Gold Retreats on Rate-Cut Doubts

Fed Uncertainty Keeps Silver Under Pressure as Traders Weigh Rate-Cut Odds

Spot silver (XAGUSD) is drifting lower on Tuesday, holding just above the tight support band between $50.02 and $49.97. The market is reacting to the same pressure weighing on gold, where traders have sharply reduced expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

With odds slipping to 42% from 67% last week, rate-sensitive metals are losing steam as the Fed signals it is not prepared to ease aggressively until incoming data proves inflation progress is durable.

At 12:34 GMT, XAGUSD is trading $50.13, down $0.08 or -0.16%.

The broader environment has been distorted by the recent 43-day U.S. government shutdown, which froze the flow of official economic indicators.

Markets had hoped that the restoration of normal releases would strengthen the case for a December cut, but policymakers — including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, who urged the Fed to “proceed slowly” — have maintained a cautious stance that chips away at bullish enthusiasm for precious metals.

Silver Tracks Gold’s Soft Tone as Traders Wait for U.S. Data

With gold sliding to an intraday low of $3997.98 and unable to regain traction below well-defined resistance, silver is mirroring the sentiment-driven pullback. The lack of new economic input has left traders dependent on Fed communication, which continues to lean restrictive. This has kept silver pinned near its nearby support zone, with buyers reluctant to commit ahead of higher-impact catalysts.

Upcoming releases — including the Fed minutes and Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls — are now the focal point. Traders want confirmation of labor-market cooling after weeks without updates.

A soft print would likely lift rate-cut odds and provide silver with a sentiment boost. Conversely, stronger employment data would reinforce the Fed’s cautious tone and keep pressure on the metal.

Technical Levels Define the Near-Term Setup for Silver

Silver’s immediate range remains anchored at the $50.02–$49.97 support band. A firm hold could allow buyers to target the next upside marker at $51.07, followed by the secondary lower top at $54.39 if momentum builds.

A sustained drop under $49.97 opens the door to $48.93, the last Fibonacci barrier before the 50-day moving average at $47.76. Buyers are expected to step in on the first test of that moving average; failure there exposes deeper levels at $46.88 and $45.55.

Silver Outlook: Slight Bearish Bias Until Fed Data Shifts Sentiment

Silver retains a slight bearish tone while traders wait for confirmation that rate-cut odds can rebuild. Without supportive data, sellers are likely to test the lower end of the range again. A decisive improvement in labor or inflation expectations is needed for bulls to regain control in the short term.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.