Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Long-Term Support Faces Critical Test

Long-Term Trend Support Under Pressure

Silver remains stuck below two key long-term trend indicators, the uptrend line and the 200-day moving average. Each indicator showed signs of failing as support recently, but there has not been much bearish follow-through so far. A potential support zone extends from the 200-day moving average near $69.08 down to the March spike low of $61.01. Silver had an opportunity to test support near the 200-day average during that decline, but buyers stepped up before it was reached, reflecting underlying demand. That resilience leaves the long-term support zone intact despite the recent break below key trend indicators.

Nonetheless, silver is on track to close below the 200-day moving average for the fourth consecutive day on Monday and below the uptrend line for the third straight session, reflecting weakness. The 200-day average and uptrend line had held as support since the 200-day average was reclaimed in early April 2025. This marks the first meaningful test of those two long-term trend indicators since then. The result has been uncertainty, with silver trading on both sides of the 200-day moving average over the past couple of weeks.

Support Zone Keeps Reversal Scenario Alive

A corrective low of $61.51 was reached two weeks ago, leading to a slightly higher swing low relative to the March decline. That week also formed a potentially bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern, with price closing back above the uptrend line but remaining below the 200-day average until after. If support can continue to hold within the March 2025 price zone, buyers may become more aggressive, increasing the potential for a bullish reversal.

Weekly Chart Reinforces Key Technical Levels

The weekly chart provides additional perspective, as the lows of the past couple of weeks have been finding support near the 50-week moving average, now near $63.64. This reinforces the potential for a durable support zone. Conversely, a decisive break below that area would strengthen the bearish outlook by confirming a loss of long-term support. The 50-week moving average has held as support since it was reclaimed in March 2024, except for a couple of weeks in April 2025 when price briefly traded below it.

Resistance Levels Hold the Key

Key near-term resistance is represented by the 20-day moving average near $70.16 and the recent lower swing high at $71.56. If those levels can be recovered, silver would have an opportunity to reclaim the long-term trend indicators and improve the broader outlook. Until then, however, the bias remains tilted to the downside.

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