Solana Price Forecast: SEC New Crypto Rules Set Stage for Key Resistance Breakout

Solana (SOL) has gone up by 3% in the past 24 hours, and it is currently breaking past a key resistance at $78, setting the stage for a strong rally after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed a set of new rules for the crypto space.

These new regulations include an exemption for crypto businesses that allows them to offer up to $5 million in unregistered securities over a period of four years and $75 million during a 12-month period to raise capital for their projects.

The investment community will get the chance to comment on this new document called “Regulation Crypto Assets” for 60 days. Although this is not a substitute for the Clarity Act, it does provide some ground rules for crypto projects to legally offer digital assets in the United States without fearing regulatory action.

“As we continue the Commission’s efforts to provide clarity for crypto markets, and as Congress works to establish a lasting regulatory framework, Regulation Crypto Assets seeks to provide crypto asset entrepreneurs and market participants with clear pathways to raise capital under the federal securities laws,” commented the head of the SEC, Paul Atkins, regarding these new provisions.

Solana’s On-Chain Metrics Remain Heavily Depressed as Bear Market Takes a Toll

SOL has closed the last three sessions with decent gains ahead of the release of today’s FOMC minutes as well.

The market will be scrutinizing the discussions that were held during this meeting as they may provide some valuable guidance about the Federal Reserve’s plans for monetary policy.

As of today, the odds of a rate hike in September have gone down to 30% following the release of last month’s inflation report in the U.S. This gave the market some breathing room, as it prompted analysts to revisit their projections for future interest rate decisions.

Turning to on-chain data, Solana’s ecosystem has experienced a strong downturn during this bear market, as reflected by a significant decline in DEX volumes and app fees.

In July, DEX volumes stood at $51 billion, meaning a 22% drop compared to the previous month and a 57% decline compared to this year’s highest monthly print in January.

Moreover, app fees, a metric that tracks the total amount collected by decentralized applications within the Solana blockchain like Pump.fun and Kamino, have stood at around $200 million, also down 50% compared to January’s peak.

SOL Could Rally to $90 and Retest Its 200-Day EMA If This Happens

Now, heading to the daily chart, we can see that Solana temporarily found support at $72 recently and started rallying again.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has jumped above the 60 level — a move that is typically interpreted as a buy signal, as it means that bullish momentum is picking up its pace.

If the price breaks past $78, we could witness a strong rally to $90 next, translating into a 15% upside potential in the near term.

This would mean a retest of the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), a move that we have been expecting for months to reassess the market’s mood. If that line is broken, that may mark the end of this bear market, aided by these regulatory tailwinds.