S&P 500 Forecast – Stock Markets Continue to Consolidate

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 12.04.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has been very noisy, as we continue to try to figure out what we are doing next. Ultimately, this is a situation where we see a lot of resistance just above near the 4200 level, and of course we are heading into earnings season, which of course is going to be a major issue.

Credit default swaps are starting to show all-time highs against most of the US banks, which of course is a very negative sign in general. Alternatively, this is a situation where we will see a lot of difficulty going forward, and therefore it’s likely that we will see the S&P 500 struggle. After all, the banks are going to continue being a problem, then there’s no real reason to think that the stock market will be healthy.

Beyond all of that, it is the beginning of earnings season, and a lot of corporations are going to have to step out and report reality. It seems as if Wall Street has been “whistling past the graveyard” for a while, and therefore we could see a fairly significant move depending on what we start to hear. Not only will the numbers be ugly, but the forward guidance by a lot of companies will probably be poor to say the least. If that’s going to be the case, then you start to kick out the legs from underneath the table that has been keeping the market elevated. Quite frankly, the market has no business being this bullish, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

That being said, if we do pull back from here, the 4100 level will offer a significant amount of support, right along with the 4000 level which of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area where we see the 50-Day EMA in the 200-Day EMA indicators hanging around. On the upside, we could break above 4200, and if we do that would be an extraordinarily bullish side. However, I think that is going to be difficult to see how that plays out, but anything is possible and you simply need to follow what the market is doing, not what it “should do.”

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.