The S&P 500 continues to look for a floor, as we wait for the FOMC statement, interest rate announcement, and press conference. Expect a lot of noise.
The S&P 500 has gone back and forth as we continue to dance around the 5,000 level, a large round number that will attract a certain amount of attention. With that being the case, I think a lot of this is going to come down to whether or not traders start to look at the market through the idea of tight monetary policy or maybe Powell isn’t as hawkish as once thought. If that’s the case, then it’s likely that we see a situation where traders could start selling if he is more hawkish than anticipated.
That being said, I do think that the uptrend will probably continue for a while. After all, trends don’t just end suddenly. From a technical analysis standpoint though, looking at the chart, you could start to make an argument for a bit of a bearish flag. I think it’s a little early to start talking about that, but this is something to keep in the back of your mind.
And if that does in fact end up being the case, we could see a significant drop, maybe down to the 4750 level, right around the 200 day EMA, which quite frankly would probably be a healthy thing. So do pay attention to that. If we break down below 5,000 substantially, that might be where we’re going. On the other hand, if we bounce from here, then it’ll just be simple consolidation. $5,000 of course is an area that a lot of people will be watching as it is so psychologically important to the overall trend, but at this point is offering support so far.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.