S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Fails at the 200-Day EMA

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 13.01.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 E-mini contract broke above the 200-Day EMA during the early trading on Thursday, after the CPI numbers came out in line. By coming out as expected, traders are starting to bet on the idea that the Federal Reserve is only going to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The reality is that there is an economic slowdown coming, so that is probably going to be more influential over the longer term than anything else.

That being said, the technical resistance has held, and traders have reacted as such. If we break down below the bottom of the daily range, it’s likely that this market will go searching for the 50-Day EMA, near the 3910 level. In this environment, that is very possible because the volatility is picking up. That being said, if we do rally from here, the next major barrier is going to be the 4000 level, and then the downtrend line just above there.

If we were to break above that downtrend line, then it’s very possible that the S&P 500 could make a run toward the 4200 level. I’m not necessarily calling for that, but I do recognize how it would be possible. All things being equal, I suspect that the 50-Day EMA being retested is probably much more likely. If we break down through there, the bottom will more likely than not fallout, allowing the S&P 500 E-mini contract to reach down to the 3800 level again. That’s an area that has been massive support, so giving that up would of course be very negative and probably cause a lot of liquidation.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.