Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: Buyers Eye Recovery Above Key Moving Averages

Resistance Tests and Short-Term Support

Gold confirmed resistance near the 20-day moving average for the second day on Thursday, hitting a slightly higher high of $4,800 before falling. The decline triggered a one-day bearish reversal below $4,662 and briefly fell below the 100-day moving average at $4,647. Support for the day was seen at $4,554, testing the 10-day moving average, which represented resistance until Tuesday’s recovery. That low attracted buyers who stepped in to drive price back above the 100-day moving average, where it appears set to end the session.

Key Moving Averages Maintain Bullish Control

A quick recovery of the 100-day moving average shows buyers remain in charge and a recovery of the 20-day moving average at $4,781 remains a possibility. Confirming support at the 10-day moving average demonstrates the switch from resistance to support, indicating bullish behavior. Thursday’s low is now key short-term support along with the 10-day moving average.

Intermediate Targets and Historical Context

Higher target zones are dominated by the 50-day moving average at $4,948. It previously represented dynamic support for the intermediate-term uptrend until it broke on March 18, leading to a lower swing high at $4,099 and a successful test of the 200-day moving average. The current advance is essentially a rebound from that sharp selloff.

Resistance Zones and Fibonacci Alignment

An interim resistance zone on the way to the 50-day average indicated from $4,874 to $5,000. This zone is derived from a 100% measured move target for a rising ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, respectively. Keep in mind that since the 50-day average is falling, it may eventually move into that price zone, adding to its potential significance.

Weekly Chart Signals and Broader Momentum

The weekly chart support higher prices as well. This week triggered the breakout of a weekly bullish hammer candlestick pattern, which will confirm on a weekly close above last week’s high around $4,603. Two weeks up from a bottom would not be unusual and there has been only one week up so far. This progression ties back to the short-term supply recovery observed earlier, suggesting that buyers maintaining control at key moving averages could extend the rally toward the 50-day average.

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