The OpenAI IPO Path Clears. Will the Market Play Along? (Part One)

With its legal horizon clearing and a market eager for high-growth AI plays, the stage is set for a historic IPO. Yet, as the company edges toward the trading floor, will Wall Street embrace OpenAI at its current, dizzying price tag?

From Founding Allies to AI Rivals

The legal battle between Elon Musk and OpenAI exposed far more than a disagreement over corporate structure. It revealed a growing power struggle at the center of the artificial intelligence industry, where questions about money, control, and the future of AI are increasingly colliding.

A U.S. jury unanimously rejected Musk’s claims against OpenAI, Chief Executive Sam Altman, and President Greg Brockman, ruling that the lawsuit had been filed too late under the statute of limitations. The verdict, reached in less than two hours, marked a major legal victory for OpenAI and removed one of the largest uncertainties surrounding the company as speculation about a future IPO continues to grow.

Musk, one of OpenAI’s original co-founders and early financial backers, argued that the company had betrayed its founding mission. According to Musk, OpenAI was initially created as a nonprofit dedicated to developing artificial intelligence safely and for the benefit of humanity, not as a profit-driven technology giant. He accused Altman and Brockman of transforming what was meant to be a charitable organization into a commercial powerhouse closely tied to Microsoft.

Throughout the trial, Musk repeatedly claimed that “you can’t steal a charity,” warning that allowing nonprofits to shift toward private profit could undermine trust in charitable organizations more broadly. He sought roughly $150 billion in damages to be redirected to OpenAI’s nonprofit entity and also pushed for the removal of Altman and Brockman from leadership positions.

OpenAI’s defense presented a very different narrative. Company lawyers argued that Musk had known for years that OpenAI would eventually need a for-profit structure to secure the massive funding required to compete in artificial intelligence. They also claimed Musk’s objections were less about protecting OpenAI’s mission and more about losing influence over the company he helped create.

The Trial Highlighted How the Economics of AI Have Changed

The trial also showed how the economics — and politics — of artificial intelligence have evolved. Developing advanced AI systems now requires enormous investments in semiconductors, data centers, energy infrastructure, and computing power, pushing the industry into an increasingly capital-intensive race dominated by a handful of technology giants. OpenAI argued during the case that remaining a purely nonprofit organization would have made it nearly impossible to compete with rivals such as Google, Anthropic, and Musk’s own startup, xAI.

But the courtroom battle reflected more than a dispute over corporate structure. It also exposed a wider struggle over who will control the future of AI and who will bear its economic and social consequences. OpenAI executives argued that Musk had previously sought greater influence over the company, including proposals involving ownership stakes and even a possible merger with Tesla. OpenAI Chairman Bret Taylor also disclosed that a consortium linked to xAI later approached OpenAI with a takeover proposal for its nonprofit assets — a move the company portrayed as inconsistent with Musk’s legal claims.

Beyond the personal rivalry between Musk and Sam Altman, the case underscored growing fears in Silicon Valley and Washington that the AI industry could become concentrated in the hands of a small number of companies with unmatched access to capital, infrastructure, and data.

At the same time, a broader public backlash against artificial intelligence is beginning to emerge across the United States. While AI is increasingly used in areas ranging from education and healthcare to finance, legal research, journalism, and facial recognition, concerns over the technology are rising just as quickly. Many Americans worry that AI could accelerate job displacement, increase misinformation through deepfakes, undermine education, and even harm children’s mental health.

The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure has also created new tensions at the local level. Massive data-center projects require huge amounts of electricity and water, contributing to concerns over rising energy costs and pressure on public utilities. In several parts of the country, opposition to new AI-related infrastructure has intensified, with protests, political campaigns, and community resistance delaying or blocking major projects.

The debate is also becoming increasingly political. Supporters of AI, particularly within the Trump administration and the technology sector, argue that the industry could become a major engine of economic growth. David Sacks, a leading figure behind the administration’s AI strategy, has promoted AI investment as a driver of jobs, wage growth, and U.S. competitiveness, particularly through the construction of data centers and digital infrastructure.

Yet public opinion remains deeply divided. A recent poll conducted with researchers from Stanford University and University of California, Berkeley found that only around 30% of Democrats support accelerating AI development as quickly as possible, compared with roughly half of Republicans and more than three-quarters of technology founders. Political analysts say anxiety surrounding AI has rapidly evolved into a major electoral issue, reshaping local campaigns and blurring traditional partisan divisions as concerns over jobs, energy, privacy, and corporate power move closer to the center of public debate.

With the lawsuit dismissed, OpenAI now faces fewer legal obstacles as it continues restructuring its business, raising capital, and positioning itself as one of the defining companies of the AI era. Let’s have a look at it in the next article.

Sources: BBC, CNBC, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal