S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Quiet During Thin Trading

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 04.07.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 has done very little during the trading session on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of hesitation near the 4500 level. This is not a huge surprise, considering that Tuesday is the Independence Day holiday, and of course electronic trading will be somewhat thin in futures markets. The underlying index of course on Tuesday will not be open at all, and with that in mind it makes quite a bit of sense that traders are simply hanging on. It’s also worth noting that the market is going to be quiet due to the fact that most Americans take Monday off if they can, and that of course includes trading firms.

If we were to break above the 4500 level, that would obviously be a very bullish sign, and at that point we could see the next leg higher. In that environment, I think you start to see a little bit of a runaway move. However, I think we are more likely than not going to see more consolidation than anything else, as the 4400 level underneath could be a bit of a support level. Underneath there, then we have the 4300 level, right around where the 50-Day EMA is starting to appear. It’s not until we break down below there that I would be looking to short this market, and I just don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Keep in mind that we have entered the “blackout period” that means companies cannot buy back their own stocks. There has been an extraordinarily large amount of influence on the index due to several major players doing exactly that. Remember, the S&P 500 has been driven by about 8 stocks, and that probably remains the same game that will be played as we continue to work our way through the “AI narrative.” With that in mind, I’m looking for some type of pullback in order to take advantage of value, with some type of support candle forming itself on the daily chart, perhaps later this week.

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