S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Testing Major Resistance

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 02.05.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 was somewhat quiet early on Monday, which makes a certain amount of sense as most of the world has been away on holiday for Labor Day. Ultimately, the market will continue to be very noisy, but we will have to pay close attention to the 4200 level as it seems to be very important. If we were to break above there, then the market could go looking to the 4300 level. On the other hand, if we turn around and fall from here, we could drop down to the 4100 level. Ultimately, it’s also worth noting that the 50-Day EMA sits underneath it to show signs of support from a technical analysis standpoint.

If the market was determined to break down below the 50-Day EMA, then it opens up the possibility of a much deeper correction, perhaps down to the 200-Day EMA and the 4000 level. Anything below their opens up quite a bit of significant selling pressure, perhaps down to the 3800 level. Ultimately, this is a market that we would continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, and I think that will be exacerbated by the idea of earnings season at the moment as well. After all, we have Apple earnings being released on Thursday, which of course would have a major influence on it.

Furthermore, we have the FOMC interest rate statement on Wednesday, the ECB statement on Thursday, then of course the Non-Farm Payroll announcement on Friday. Because of this, I think there are plenty of reasons to believe that we could see some noisy behavior between now and then, and therefore we could see quite a bit of difficulties. That being said, it’s probably worth noting that Wall Street does everything it can to find the next narrative to buy stocks, as it is their job to make things look appealing. Obviously, they will do everything they can to try to switch to a narrative where the Federal Reserve will have to loosen monetary policy, which has been the main reason for buying stocks over the last 14 years. The question is whether or not they actually start to pay attention to the economy?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.