S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Markets Wake Up

US Stock Market Forecast Video for 06.09.23

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 fell slightly in early trading, as we are trying to sort out what the big players are going to do now that they are coming back from holiday. After all, liquidity will have been thin as of late, as evidence by last week’s almost nothing going on for several days. At this point, we are consolidating right around the 4500 level, which will have a major influence on where we go next. If we can break above the highs of last week, I suspect at that point the S&P 500 will continue to go much higher, perhaps driving all the way to the 4650 level.

That being said, we are probably going right back to the same game we were playing previously, trying to sort out whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy. The game has been to try to convince everybody that they are going to loosen monetary policy sooner rather than later, and then when it becomes apparent that they don’t care what Wall Street wants, the market selloff. Ultimately, when you look at everything the Federal Reserve says, they are nowhere near their 2% inflation target rate, and I think that’s probably something worth paying close attention to. After all, it is one of their mandates but what they don’t tell you publicly is that keeping the S&P 500 elevated is one as well.

Ultimately, the 50-Day EMA underneath should offer a significant amount of technical support, and then of course we have the double bottom near the 4400 level. Both of those could come in to attract buyers, and I do think that any dip will more likely than not attract a certain amount of value hunting. The next couple of days could in fact be very noisy, as bigger players come into the market and start putting money to work for the fall season. Typically speaking, September is a generally negative month, but that does not mean anything. After all, with interest rates going 5% higher, you would expect that the stock market would have cratered, but yet here we are. At this point, all you can do is wait for the momentum to pick up, and simply follow.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.