S&P 500 Testing Trendline

The S&P 500 has been floating during the day underneath the previous uptrend line, and it looks at this point in time as if we are getting ready to pull back a bit. That being said, the 4500 level above also looms large, causing a bit of a problem as well. A pullback from here would make a certain amount of sense to both buyers and sellers, and the fact that the Friday candlestick was the quadruple witching day should be kept in the back of your mind because even though it was bullish, volatility picks up on those days regardless.

S&P 500 Video 22.03.22

It is very likely at this point we will go drifting lower, perhaps trying to reach the 50 Day EMA. Underneath there, we have the 200 Day EMA as well, which also makes a target that people will pay attention to. With this being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we will see choppy behavior, but as long as we continue to worry about yearly comps, the Ukrainian war, inflation, and the slowing growth scenario, it is difficult to get overly bullish of the stock market.

Ultimately, I think this is an excellent area to start thinking about short, but if we break above the 4500 level, there is nothing I can do but simply would hold my nose and start to buy the market, regardless of the fundamental background. Ultimately, we have had a massive bounce, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we are in a bearish market, and these relief rallies can be brutal.

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