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Paul Rejczak
S&P 500

The broad stock market has been trading within a short-term consolidation in the last five trading days (June 17 – June 23). Three months ago on March 23, the S&P 500 index sold off to new medium-term low of 2,191.86. It was a stunning 35.4% below February 19 record high of 3,393.52. The corona virus and economic slowdown fears have erased more than a third of the broad stock market value. Then we saw huge come-back rally, as the index got back above 3,200 mark. In the first half of June the broad stock market has broken below its short-term upward trend line. Since then it has been trading within a consolidation following bouncing off 3,000 mark.

The S&P 500 index has lost 0.15% since last Wednesday’s open. In the same period of time our five long and five short stock picks have gained 0.53%. Stock picks were relatively stronger than the broad stock market last week. Our long stock picks have lost 0.58% but short stock picks have resulted in a gain of 1.64%. The overall results remain relatively better than the S&P 500 index over last months.

If stocks were in a prolonged downtrend, being able to profit anyway, would be extremely valuable. Of course, it’s not the point of our Stock Pick Updates to forecast where the general stock market is likely to move, but rather to provide you with stocks that are likely to generate profits regardless of what the S&P does.

This means that our overall stock-picking performance can be summarized on the chart below. The assumptions are: starting with $100k, no leverage used. The data before Dec 24, 2019 comes from our internal tests and data after that can be verified by individual Stock Pick Updates posted on our website.

Below we include statistics and the details of our three recent updates:

  • June 23, 2020
    Long Picks (June 17 open – June 23 close % change): BA (-3.41%), DLR (-0.81%), WLTW (+1.27%), BMY (+2.05%), HSY (-2.03%)
    Short Picks (June 17 open – June 23 close % change): DHR (-0.23%), CLX (+1.76%), AEP (-1.58%), MMM (-1.47%), PLD (-6.67%)Average long result: -0.58%, average short result: +1.64%
    Total profit (average): +0.53%
  • June 16, 2020
    Long Picks (June 10 open – June 16 close % change): SLB (-11.06%), IEX (-4.63%), L (-10.45%), BSX (-4.33%), KR (-1.69%)
    Short Picks (June 10 open – June 16 close % change): ABBV (-0.96%), COST (-1.67%), ADBE (+3.02%), VLO (-7.62%), NOC (-4.84%)Average long result: -6.43%, average short result: +2.41%
    Total profit (average): -2.01%
  • June 9, 2020
    Long Picks (June 3 open – June 9 close % change): VMC (+5.25%), DISCK (+7.87%), HAS (+6.62%), HSY (-2.90%), MRK (+1.56%)
    Short Picks (June 3 open – June 9 close % change): MNST (-3.00%), ABBV (+5.14%), EQIX (-0.07%), ECL (+5.14%), FB (+2.83%)Average long result: +3.68%, average short result: -2.01%
    Total profit (average): +0.84%

Let’s check which stocks could magnify S&P’s gains in case it rallies, and which stocks would be likely to decline the most if S&P plunges. Here are our stock picks for the Wednesday, June 24 – Tuesday, June 30 period.

We will assume the following: the stocks will be bought or sold short on the opening of today’s trading session (June 24) and sold or bought back on the closing of the next Tuesday’s trading session (June 30).

We will provide stock trading ideas based on our in-depth technical and fundamental analysis, but since the main point of this publication is to provide the top 5 long and top 5 short candidates (our opinion, not an investment advice) for this week, we will focus solely on the technicals. The latter are simply more useful in case of short-term trades.

First, we will take a look at the recent performance by sector. It may show us which sector is likely to perform best in the near future and which sector is likely to lag. Then, we will select our buy and sell stock picks.

There are eleven stock market sectors: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Technology, Communications Services, Utilities and Real Estate. They are further divided into industries, but we will just stick with these main sectors of the stock market.

We will analyze them and their relative performance by looking at the Select Sector SPDR ETF’s.

Based on the above, we decided to choose our stock picks for the next week. We will choose our top 3 long and top 3 short candidates using trend-following approach, and top 2 long and top 2 short candidates using contrarian approach:

Trend-following approach:

  • buys: 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Technology, 1 x Financials
  • sells: 1 x Health Care, 1 x Energy, 1 x Utilities

Contrarian approach (betting against the recent trend):

  • buys: 1 x Health Care, 1 x Energy
  • sells: 1 x Real Estate, 1 x Technology

Trend-following approach

Top 3 Buy Candidates

WY Weyerhauser Co. – Real Estate

  • Stock continues to trade above month-long upward trend line
  • Potential uptrend continuation
  • The resistance level of $24-25 (upside profit target level)

CTSH Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. – Technology

  • Stock trades within a medium-term consolidation following April’s advance
  • Upside profit target level of $58-60 (the resistance level)
  • The support level remains at $50-52

HIG Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. – Financials

  • Potential uptrend resuming after breaking above downward trend line
  • The resistance level of $48 (short-term upside profit target)
  • The nearest important support level remains at $38

Summing up, the above trend-following long stock picks are just a part of our whole Stock Pick Update. The Real Estate, Technology and Financials sectors were relatively the strongest in the last 30 days. And they all have gained much more than the S&P 500 index in the same period. So that part of our ten long and short stock picks is meant to outperform in the coming days if the broad stock market acts similarly as it did before.

We hope you enjoyed reading the above free analysis, and we encourage you to read today’s Stock Pick Update – this analysis’ full version. There, we include the stock market sector analysis for the past month and remaining long and short stock picks for the next week. There’s no risk in subscribing right away, because there’s a 30-day money back guarantee for all our products, so we encourage you to subscribe today.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits – Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

* * * * *

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

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