The Day Ahead: Markets Rally Today on Ceasefire, Await Powell’s Fed Outlook

Market Overview

U.S. equity futures are higher Tuesday as geopolitical tensions ease following President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. S&P 500 futures are up 0.79%, Nasdaq 100 futures lead with a 1.06% gain, and Dow futures are ahead by 0.68%. Monday’s session saw broad gains, with the S&P 500 rising 0.96%, Nasdaq adding 0.94%, and the Dow climbing 375 points.

The ceasefire news lifted risk appetite and pulled oil and gold prices sharply lower. Markets also continue to respond to expectations around interest rate policy, as dovish Fed commentary grows ahead of Chair Powell’s congressional testimony.

Key Economic Releases

12:30 GMT – Current Account (Q1)
Actual: -$448B | Forecast: -$304B | Previous: -$304B
The larger-than-expected deficit may add pressure to the dollar and reinforce arguments for easing if sustained into Q2.

13:00 GMT – House Price Index m/m (Apr)
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: -0.1%
Muted sequential growth underscores affordability concerns and points to a soft housing backdrop despite rate stability.

13:00 GMT – S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City HPI y/y (Apr)
Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 4.1%
Price growth remains steady but is easing slightly, offering modest disinflationary evidence for the Fed.

14:00 GMT – CB Consumer Confidence (Jun)
Forecast: 99.4 | Previous: 98.0
A firmer print could dampen July rate cut odds, while a miss would support dovish expectations.

14:00 GMT – Richmond Manufacturing Index (Jun)
Forecast: -10 | Previous: -9
Another soft read here would add to the case for policy accommodation amid ongoing regional factory weakness.

Notable Earnings

Before the Bell:
• CINT (CI&T Inc.) – Est. EPS $0.06
Focus remains on U.S. digital spending momentum and offshore delivery margin resilience.

• JBL (Jabil Inc.) – Est. EPS $1.85, rev. $6.47B
  Traders will monitor forward guidance linked to AI and electronic components demand.

After the Bell:
• FDX (FedEx) – Est. EPS $5.36, rev. $22.07B
Key focus on cost controls and Express segment margins. FedEx’s outlook has broad macro implications for trade and freight sectors.

Central Bank Activity

14:00 GMT – Fed Chair Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee
Powell’s tone is crucial following dovish remarks from Bowman and Waller. A shift could raise market odds for a July cut, currently near 20%.

16:30 GMT – FOMC Member Williams speaks
Williams’ remarks will be parsed for alignment with Powell and further clues on the near-term rate path.

Commodities, Crypto, and Bonds

WTI crude is down 2.42% to $66.85, and Brent is at $69.76 (-2.41%) as ceasefire headlines reduce supply concerns. Gold is lower at $3,351.47 as safe-haven flows unwind. The dollar is softer amid broad risk-on moves. Treasury yields are steady ahead of Powell’s remarks.

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 Index Futures: Breakout Above Resistance Clears the Path Higher

Futures surged to a session high of 6,143.75, breaking through the prior ceiling at 6,127.00. This breakout confirms bullish momentum and opens the door toward the next major resistance at 6,288.75. Immediate support is now layered, with the 200-day SMA at 5,964.57 just above swing support at 5,959.00. The rising 50-day SMA below at 5,832.10 adds further trend confirmation.

Nasdaq 100 Futures: Support Reorders as Bulls Push Toward Range High

With futures currently at 22,304.00, the market is pressing just below resistance at 22,322.50. A clean break above would aim toward 22,873.25. Support realigns with the 200-day SMA at 21,145.13 above swing support at 21,566.75. The rising 50-day SMA at 20,887.80 provides additional technical backing for the trend.

Dow Jones Futures: Coiling Below Breakout Trigger with Momentum Building

Futures are trading at 43,167.00, approaching the key breakout trigger at 43,516. A sustained move above this level would confirm upside resolution from the multi-week range and target 46,326.00. Support holds at 42,088.00, with the 50-day SMA at 41,967.50 acting as the first structural floor. Momentum is building, but confirmation requires a break through 43,516 with volume and follow-through.

Outlook

Today’s session centers on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, with added weight from a soft Richmond print and a weak current account. Oil weakness and the ceasefire have lifted equities. FedEx earnings after the close offer additional direction for macro-sensitive names in transport.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.