Oil News: Trump–Putin Outcome Could Be the Trigger for $65.32 WTI Break or Fail

Weekly Close Shows Bears in Control

WTI settled at $63.88, down roughly 5% — the sharpest weekly loss since late June. Closing under the 52-week moving average ($64.32) signals potential for more selling pressure, as long-term trend followers often take that as a cue to stay defensive.

OPEC+ Turns the Spigot

OPEC+ confirmed a September output hike of 547,000 bpd, fully unwinding earlier voluntary cuts. This pushes more supply into a market where demand growth expectations are already soft, which could pressure prices unless offset by unexpected demand spikes or supply disruptions elsewhere.

Are Tariffs the New Oil Bear?

Fresh U.S. tariffs on multiple trading partners took effect Thursday, raising fears of slower global growth. Weaker economic activity typically reduces fuel consumption, particularly in trade-heavy economies, which could trim refinery runs and crude imports in the months ahead.

Putin and Trump: A Game-Changer or Just Noise?

The Kremlin confirmed a Trump–Putin meeting in the coming days. If sanctions on Russian oil are eased, additional barrels could hit the export market, especially to Asia, which would likely weigh on prices. Conversely, if talks collapse and sanctions tighten, some supply could be sidelined, offering a bullish shock.

Inventory Draw Can’t Change the Mood

The EIA reported a 3 million barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks, a sign that domestic demand or exports remain firm. However, the broader backdrop of tariff-driven demand risks muted the reaction, suggesting traders are prioritizing forward-looking consumption fears over current stock levels. The U.S. rig count also edged higher to 411, signaling steady-to-slightly higher domestic supply potential.

Technical Picture: All Eyes on $64.32

With the weekly close at $63.88, initial resistance comes in at $64.13, followed closely by the 52-week moving average at $64.32. A sustained push through both would flip them into short-term support and open the door toward the long-term pivot at $65.37, then $69.89, and the main top at $70.51.

On the downside, support is at $62.69. A decisive break below this level could trigger an acceleration toward $52.00 and $51.18. Price action around $64.32 next week will be key in determining whether sellers stay in control or bulls can regain momentum.

Next Week: Who Sets the Tone — Headlines or Charts?

The 52-week moving average at $64.32 is the immediate battleground. A sustained move above it would shift short-term momentum back toward the bulls, setting up a run at $65.37.

Fundamentals that could help clear that hurdle include a stronger-than-expected U.S. inventory draw, upbeat economic data from major importers like China, or any breakdown in the Trump–Putin talks that tightens Russian exports.

On the flip side, failure to break $64.32 would keep the pressure on the downside, with sellers likely targeting $62.69.

Bearish drivers here could be a firm OPEC+ output ramp, fresh demand downgrades tied to tariffs, or headlines suggesting eased sanctions on Russia — any of which could add barrels to the market and undercut prices.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.