The Week Ahead: Markets Focus on Fed, Earnings, and Jobs in Packed U.S. Calendar

Market Overview

U.S. equities extended their summer rally with fresh highs across all major indices. The S&P 500 rose +1.46% to 6,388.64, the Nasdaq gained +1.02% to 21,108.32, and the Dow climbed +1.26% to 44,901.92. Volatility remains muted, with no daily moves exceeding 1% in over a month and 11 new highs recorded in the past 30 days.

Trade optimism is the central theme this week, as clarity ahead of the August 1 deadline reduces worst-case tariff risks. Recent deals with Japan, the U.K., Vietnam, Indonesia, and partial agreements with China provide visibility and support renewed investment spending.

Earnings season accelerates with nearly 40% of the S&P 500 reporting, including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. The Q2 beat rate stands at 83% with a 7% average upside surprise, lifting growth expectations to 5.5% from 4.0%.

The Fed is expected to hold rates at 4.25%–4.5% on Wednesday. Political pressure builds ahead of Powell’s final year, but recent data supports a patient approach. A September cut becomes more plausible if August 1 trade clarity holds.

Key Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday (7/28)
Before the Open:
Bank of Hawaii (BOH) – Est. $1.06
Enterprise Products (EPD) – Est. $0.64
Revvity (RVTY) – Est. $1.14
After the Close:
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB) – Est. $1.33
Brown & Brown (BRO) – Est. $0.99
Cadence Design (CDNS) – Est. $1.56
Hartford Financial (HIG) – Est. $2.83
Nucor (NUE) – Est. $2.55
Waste Management (WM) – Est. $1.90

Tuesday (7/29)
Before the Open:
Procter & Gamble (PG) – Est. $1.42
American Tower (AMT) – Est. $2.79
Carrier Global (CARR) – Est. $0.87
Merck (MRK) – Est. $2.28
PayPal (PYPL) – Est. $1.19
UnitedHealth (UNH) – Est. $6.80
Economic Data (GMT):
12:30 GMT – Goods Trade Balance (Prior: -96.4B), Wholesale Inventories m/m (Prior: -0.3%)
13:00 GMT – HPI m/m (Prior: -0.4%), S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y (Prior: 3.4%)
14:00 GMT – JOLTS Job Openings (Prior: 7.77M), CB Consumer Confidence (Prior: 93.0)
After the Close:
Booking Holdings (BKNG) – Est. $41.90
Electronic Arts (EA) – Est. $1.04
Starbucks (SBUX) – Est. $0.93
Visa (V) – Est. $2.42

Wednesday (7/30)
Before the Open:
Altria (MO) – Est. $1.31
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) – Est. $2.09
Humana (HUM) – Est. $6.96
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) – Est. $2.54
Kraft Heinz (KHC) – Est. $0.78
Economic Data (GMT):
12:15 GMT – ADP Employment Change (Est: 82K, Prior: -33K)
12:30 GMT – Advance GDP q/q (Est: 2.4%, Prior: -0.5%), GDP Price Index q/q (Est: 2.3%, Prior: 3.8%)
14:00 GMT – Pending Home Sales m/m (Est: 0.3%, Prior: 1.8%)
18:00 GMT – Fed Funds Rate Decision (Exp: 4.50%)
18:30 GMT – FOMC Press Conference
After the Close:
Meta Platforms (META) – Est. $5.16
Microsoft (MSFT) – Est. $2.95
Qualcomm (QCOM) – Est. $2.33
Lam Research (LRCX) – Est. $8.17

Thursday (7/31)
Before the Open:
AbbVie (ABBV) – Est. $2.65
Comcast (CMCSA) – Est. $1.21
CVS Health (CVS) – Est. $1.83
Mastercard (MA) – Est. $3.50
Economic Data (GMT):
12:30 GMT – Core PCE m/m (Est: 0.3%, Prior: 0.2%), Employment Cost Index q/q (Est: 0.8%, Prior: 0.9%)
12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims (Est: 222K, Prior: 217K), Personal Income m/m (Est: 0.2%, Prior: -0.4%), Personal Spending m/m (Est: 0.4%, Prior: -0.1%)
13:45 GMT – Chicago PMI (Est: 41.8, Prior: 40.4)
After the Close:
Amazon (AMZN) – Est. $1.32
Apple (AAPL) – Est. $1.41
Stryker (SYK) – Est. $2.81

Friday (8/1)
Before the Open:
Chevron (CVX) – Est. $2.55
Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Est. $2.14
Colgate-Palmolive (CL) – Est. $0.91
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) – Est. $1.96
Regeneron (REGN) – Est. $11.56
Economic Data (GMT):
12:30 GMT – Avg Hourly Earnings m/m (Est: 0.3%, Prior: 0.2%), Non-Farm Payrolls (Est: 108K, Prior: 147K), Unemployment Rate (Est: 4.2%, Prior: 4.1%)
14:00 GMT – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Est: 49.5, Prior: 49.0), Prices Paid (Est: 66.5, Prior: 69.7), Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Est: 61.8, Prior: 61.8)

Central Bank Activity

Wednesday (7/30)
18:00 GMT – Fed Rate Decision (expected hold at 4.25%–4.5%)
18:30 GMT – Powell press conference
Powell likely reinforces data dependence amid rising political pressure. Commentary expected on June CPI tariff pass-through and labor resilience. September rate cut path hinges on August 1 trade outcomes.

Technical Outlook

Dow closed at 44,901.92 (+1.26%), above 52-week SMA at 42,495.49 with support at 43,758.98 and resistance near 45,000.

Nasdaq at 21,108.32 (+1.02%) holds above 52-week SMA at 18,691.51, with support at 19,334.98.

S&P 500 at 6,388.64 (+1.46%) remains above 52-week SMA at 5,830.06, with support at 5,943.23.

All indices continue to trade well above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming strong uptrends with limited downside risk.

Outlook

This week’s Fed decision and mega-cap earnings are pivotal for the rally. Powell’s tone on trade and cuts, combined with big tech results, will drive direction.

Magnificent 7 earnings must support high valuations, with AI demand and FX trends in focus. Friday’s jobs report is the final labor market read before September. With strong internals and tight spreads, bulls maintain the edge into August.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.