Silver (XAG) Forecast: Silver Outlook Turns to Powell’s Press Conference for Clarity

Last Week Recap: Momentum Fades Despite 14-Year High

Silver ended last week flat at $38.16 after a brief breakout to $39.53—the highest level since 2011. Early gains were fueled by falling U.S. Treasury yields, a weakening dollar, and persistent supply tightness in the spot market. Tariff-driven trade uncertainty and a widening premium between U.S. and London contracts further supported the bullish tone.

However, by Friday, momentum had cooled. A rebound in the U.S. dollar, stronger-than-expected PMI andjobless claims, and softening gold prices led to a third consecutive daily decline in silver. Despite this, silver remains up 36% year-to-date and continues to attract safe-haven and industrial demand flows.

Week Ahead: Fed Decision, Q2 GDP, and Jobs in Focus

The week ahead presents a volatile mix of macro catalysts likely to dictate silver’s short-term direction. The centerpiece is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

While markets expect no rate change, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference could have major implications. A dovish tilt or acknowledgment of rising internal dissent could pressure the dollar and revive precious metals. Conversely, any indication of extended rate stability may favor risk assets over safe havens.

Also on the radar is Thursday’s release of the Core PCE Price Index—key to inflation tracking—and Friday’s July jobs report. BofA expects just 60,000 jobs were added, reflecting labor market softening.

Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP (due Wednesday) is expected at +2.4%, rebounding from Q1’s tariff-distorted -0.5% reading. However, economists warn this bounce is misleading, with real growth more moderate when averaged across both quarters.

Adding to the uncertainty is Friday’s August 1 tariff implementation on copper imports. Though silver is not directly affected, the broader impact on industrial metal flows and supply chains has already tightened market conditions.

Forecast: Volatility High, Bullish Bias Holds

Silver enters a critical week with elevated volatility expected. A dovish Fed or weaker-than-expected jobs print could trigger a renewed rally back toward $39.50 and possibly $40.00. On the flip side, a firm dollar and stronger macro readings may keep silver in a consolidation range or invite further correction.

With industrial demand steady and physical tightness unresolved, the bullish case remains intact—but hinges entirely on how this week’s macro risks play out.

Technically, momentum could shift lower over the near-term, but the swing chart trend is not likely to be challenged unless sellers take out $35.28. Longer-term, the metal remains well-supported by the 52-week moving average at $32.18. This means “buy the dip” is still the best strategy since we know our exits if we’re wrong.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.