The Week Ahead: PCE Inflation Data and Micron Earnings Take Center Stage

Market Overview

U.S. equities moved higher last week despite a more hawkish message from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,564.71, gaining 0.71% for the week. The S&P 500 ended at 7,500.58, up 0.93%, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 2.43% to close at 26,517.93.

The primary focus this week will be inflation data, particularly the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. The release follows last week’s FOMC meeting, where policymakers held interest rates steady while signaling a more inflation-focused policy stance.

The Federal Reserve removed its previously projected 2026 rate cut from the dot plot and raised inflation forecasts. Policymakers also upgraded their assessment of the labor market, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

Investors will also be watching a handful of notable earnings reports. FedEx and Micron Technology headline the calendar, with Micron providing another important update on AI-related demand and memory pricing trends. Reports from Paychex, Carnival, Darden Restaurants, and KB Home should offer additional insight into employment trends, consumer spending, travel demand, and housing activity.

Markets will also monitor a series of Fed speeches throughout the week for additional insight into how policymakers are interpreting recent inflation developments and whether officials continue to support a higher-for-longer policy outlook.

Economic Releases & Notable Earnings

Monday, Jun 22

Before the Open:
• No reports scheduled.

Economic Releases:
• No releases scheduled.

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Tuesday, Jun 23

Before the Open:
• Korn Ferry (KFY), est. $1.38

Economic Releases:
• 12:15 GMT – ADP Weekly Employment Change, prior 25.5K
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Manufacturing PMI, forecast 54.6 (prior 55.1)
• 13:45 GMT – Flash Services PMI, forecast 51.0 (prior 50.7)
• 14:00 GMT – Richmond Manufacturing Index, forecast 8 (prior 13)
• 20:30 GMT – API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

After the Close:
• FedEx (FDX), est. $5.92
• KB Home (KBH), est. $0.45
• Worthington Enterprises (WOR), est. $1.06

Wednesday, Jun 24

Before the Open:
• Paychex (PAYX), est. $1.31

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Current Account, forecast -219B (prior -191B)
• 14:00 GMT – New Home Sales, forecast 637K (prior 622K)
• 14:30 GMT – Crude Oil Inventories, prior -8.3M
• 20:30 GMT – Bank Stress Test Results

After the Close:
• Micron Technology (MU), est. $20.05
• H.B. Fuller (FUL), est. $1.38
• Jefferies (JEF), est. $1.02
• MillerKnoll (MLKN), est. $0.52
• Trip.com Group (TCOM), est. $6.05
• Worthington Steel (WS), est. $0.73

Thursday, Jun 25

Before the Open:
• Acuity (AYI), est. $5.15
• BlackBerry (BB), est. $0.03
• Commercial Metals (CMC), est. $1.72
• Darden Restaurants (DRI), est. $3.63
• McCormick (MKC), est. $0.70
• TD Synnex (SNX), est. $4.12
• Winnebago (WGO), est. $0.77

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Core PCE Price Index m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
• 12:30 GMT – Final GDP q/q, forecast 1.6% (prior 1.6%)
• 12:30 GMT – Final GDP Price Index q/q, forecast 3.5% (prior 3.5%)
• 12:30 GMT – Unemployment Claims, forecast 226K (prior 229K)
• 12:30 GMT – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast 0.5% (prior 1.1%)
• 12:30 GMT – Durable Goods Orders m/m, forecast -4.9% (prior 8.0%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Income m/m, forecast 0.4% (prior 0.0%)
• 12:30 GMT – Personal Spending m/m, forecast 0.6% (prior 0.5%)
• 14:30 GMT – Natural Gas Storage, prior 73B

After the Close:
• Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC), est. $0.50
• Lindsay Corp (LNN), est. $1.14
• Simply Good Foods (SMPL), est. $0.36

Friday, Jun 26

Before the Open:
• Apogee Enterprises (APOG), est. $0.45

Economic Releases:
• 12:30 GMT – Goods Trade Balance, forecast -85.4B (prior -82.4B)
• 12:30 GMT – Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m, forecast 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
• 14:00 GMT – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, forecast 50.0 (prior 48.9)
• 14:00 GMT – Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, prior 4.6%

After the Close:
• No reports scheduled.

Central Bank Activity

Monday, Jun 22

• Christopher Waller (Federal Reserve Governor) – 13:00 GMT

Thursday, Jun 25

• John Williams (New York Fed President) – 19:40 GMT
  • Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed President) – 22:30 GMT

Friday, June 26

• John Williams (New York Fed President) – 14:30 GMT
  • Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed President) – 15:30 GMT

Following last week’s hawkish FOMC meeting, investors will closely monitor Fed commentary for further guidance regarding inflation risks, interest rate expectations, and how long policymakers expect rates to remain elevated.

Technical Outlook

Weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Dow Jones: 51,564.71 (+0.71%), support at 50,494.88, 50,073.31, 48,708.57, 48,669.24, 47,815.80, 47,495.07 (52-week SMA), resistance at 52,281.19.

Weekly Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC)

Nasdaq: 26,517.93 (+2.43%), support at 24,980.38, 23,940.23, 23,173.24, 23,031.20 (52-week SMA), resistance at 27,190.21.

Weekly S&P 500 Index (SPX)

S&P 500: 7,500.58 (+0.93%), support at 7,237.85, 6,968.90, 6,815.03, 6,793.05 (52-week SMA), resistance at 7,620.90.

All major indices remain above rising 52-week SMAs, confirming an intact primary uptrend.

Outlook

The May PCE report will be the week’s most important economic release. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to remove its projected 2026 rate cut and emphasize inflation risks, investors will closely examine whether inflation remains elevated or shows signs of stabilization.

Fed speakers throughout the week may provide additional clarity regarding the policy outlook after Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting. Markets will also monitor PMI surveys, housing data, durable goods orders, consumer spending, and sentiment indicators for further insight into economic conditions.

On the earnings front, FedEx, Micron Technology, Paychex, Darden Restaurants, and KB Home headline a relatively light reporting calendar. Investors will focus on corporate guidance and demand trends as earnings growth remains an important support for equity valuations in a higher-for-longer rate environment.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.