Toncoin Price Forecast: TON’s 20%-Plus Boom Follows Major Dump Warnings

Toncoin (TON) has bounced by over 40% two months after forming a local low near $2.35. That includes 20%-plus gains this week, which has turned the Telegram-backed token into one of the leading performers in the period.

The gains are prompting analysts and chartists to predict further price rallies in the Toncoin market. That is primarily because of the strong fundamentals that have backed TON’s recent pumps.

Still, there exists a major bull trap signal that one shouldn’t ignore. Let’s discuss all the factors as follows.

Toncoin Fundamental Analysis: Telegram’s Latest Announcements Make Bullish Case for TON Prices

TON’s breakout began after Telegram raised $1.5 billion through a bond issuance, attracting institutional players like BlackRock and Citadel. The funding came with no equity dilution and no token sales—just traditional 9% yield bonds.

$TON

Two pieces of news for it today:
1. Telegram to Raise $1.5 Billion in Bond Deal, Expected to Include BlackRock, Mubadala and Citadel as Investors, Sources Say – WSJ

2. TELEGRAM WILL RECEIVE $300M IN CASH, EQUITY FROM XAI, PLUS 50% OF REVENUE FROM XAI SUBSCRIPTIONS SOLD VIA… pic.twitter.com/O0Vqvokm1p

— mnl (@mnltrades) May 28, 2025

This financial runway enables TON to focus on infrastructure development, ecosystem expansion, and onboarding Telegram’s massive user base into crypto. Crucially, it removes the overhang of forced token sales that has weighed on similar projects.

Further fueling optimism is the TON Foundation’s rumored partnership with xAI, Elon Musk’s AI venture. The partnership may unlock a new frontier for TON by merging blockchain with real-time AI across a platform with 900 million users.

Nonetheless, X owner Elon Musk has clarified that they have not signed a partnership with Telegram, opposing founder Pavel Durov’s claims. As a result of these seesaw announcements, TON pared a portion of its recent gains, falling by over 9.5% from its weekly high.

🔥 This summer, Telegram users will gain access to the best AI technology on the market. @elonmusk and I have agreed to a 1-year partnership to bring xAI’s @grok to our billion+ users and integrate it across all Telegram apps 🤝

💪 This also strengthens Telegram’s financial… pic.twitter.com/ZPK550AyRV

— Pavel Durov (@durov) May 28, 2025

Technical Analysis: Consolidation Persists Despite Breakout Attempt

Despite the surge, Toncoin remains technically confined within a symmetrical triangle on the 3-day chart, characterized by lower highs and higher lows converging toward an apex.

This neutral consolidation pattern often precedes sharp breakouts, but can resolve in either direction.

Earlier in May, TON showed signs of a potential bearish breakdown, with a projected downside target near $2.15 if triangle support failed. However, strong fundamental catalysts have temporarily overpowered that risk, pushing TON back above the $3.30 level.

A confirmed breakout above the $3.70 resistance line would invalidate the bearish setup and open the door to retesting the $4.50–$5.00 zone. Until then, traders remain cautious, as failure to break out could revive downside pressure.