U.S. Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – Main Trend Changes to Down on Trade Through 90.030

James Hyerczyk
Published: Jan 26, 2021, 21:01 UTC

The downside bias appears to be ready to resume with the formation of a potentially bearish secondary lower top at 90.595.

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar is down against a basket of peers late Tuesday as a shift in risk sentiment encouraged investors to move their money into riskier, higher-yielding currencies.

The session started with the greenback underpinned by mounting coronavirus cases and general nervousness ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy announcements on Wednesday. The dollar index, however, dropped suddenly shortly after data showed U.S. consumer confidence rose moderately in January.

At 20:42 GMT, March U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 90.135, down 0.238 or -0.26%.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 89.3 this month from 87.1 in December. The slight gain likely reflected nearly $900 billion in additional pandemic relief provided by the government at the end of December, which lifted consumers’ near-term expectations.

Additionally, few if any changes are expected to the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday after its two-day meeting and no new economic forecasts are scheduled to be released.

Meanwhile, recent government data showed that speculators in the U.S. Dollar market remain extremely bearish on the currency.

Daily March U.S. Dollar Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on January 19.

A trade through 90.940 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 90.030.

The main range is 92.730 to 89.165. Its retracement zone at 90.950 to 91.370 is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

The minor range is 90.940 to 90.030. Its retracement zone at 90.485 to 90.590 is resistance. This zone stopped the buying on Tuesday.

The short-term range is 89.165 to 90.940. Its retracement zone at 90.055 to 89.845 is the next downside target. Buyers could come in on a test of this area, but if 89.845 fails then look for an acceleration to the downside.

Short-Term Outlook

The downside bias appears to be ready to resume with the formation of a potentially bearish secondary lower top at 90.595. Taking out 90.030 will change the main trend to down, while a move through 89.845 could trigger an acceleration to the downside with 89.165 the next likely downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

Did you find this article useful?