U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX) Technical Analysis – June 13, 2019 Forecast

The U.S. Dollar is trading slightly better against a basket of major currencies on Thursday despite another drop in U.S. Treasury yields and muted consumer inflation data, which supports a Federal Reserve rate cut for July.

Helping to boost the dollar is weakness in the British Pound. Keeping a lid on the greenback is a steady Euro and Japanese Yen. A stronger Canadian Dollar and Swiss Franc are also weighing on the U.S. Dollar.

At 11:35 GMT, June U.S. Dollar Index futures are trading 96.980, up 0.010 or +0.01%.

Uncertainty over Brexit, and the Conservative party leadership contest, are keeping the Sterling under pressure, although it’s still near the top of its recent trading range.

The Canadian Dollar is soaring in response to a more than 3% gain in crude oil futures on reports of tanker explosions in the Gulf of Oman near the Iranian coastline.

Safe-haven buying due to weaker demand for equities is underpinning the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is blaming trade tensions between the United States and China for a spike in its currency. However, it also said it could further relax its ultra-loose monetary policy in response.

It’s a light day in the United States as far as data is concerned. The first report is Import Prices, followed by weekly Unemployment Claims.

 

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but the index is edging higher for the week on a slightly weaker Euro. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 97.390. A move through 96.405 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with 96.365 the next target.

The main range is 95.170 to 98.260. Its retracement zone at 97.715 to 96.35 is controlling the near-term direction of the index. Trading above this support zone is helping to generate a slight upside bias today.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the June U.S. Dollar Index on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 97.050.

Bullish Scenario

Overtaking and sustaining a rally over 97.050 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a rally into a downtrending Gann angle at 97.320. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 97.390 main top.

Bearish Scenario

The inability to overcome 97.050 will signal the presence of sellers. If the selling pressure is strong enough then look for a pullback into the 50% level at 96.715.