The direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index futures contract will be determined by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and investor appetite for
The direction of the September U.S. Dollar Index futures contract will be determined by the direction of U.S. Treasury yields and investor appetite for risk. Higher Treasury yields and increased demand for risk will help underpin the index. Lower Treasury yields and lower demand for risk will put pressure on the index.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 92.05 will signal a resumption of the downside pressure. A move through 91.55 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the May 3, 2016 main bottom at 91.45 the next major target.
The short-term range is 91.55 to 93.305. Its retracement zone is 92.43 to 92.22. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market. The index is currently straddling the lower or Fibonacci level of this range at 92.22. This is also helping to give the market a downside bias.
Based on the current price at 92.20, the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to a pair of Gann angles at 92.30 and 92.18.
A sustained move over 92.30 will indicate the return of buyers. This could drive the market into the 50% level at 92.43. If volume and momentum begin to increase then 92.80 will become the next upside target.
A sustained move under 92.18 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the index into short-term uptrending angles at 91.93 and 91.74. The latter is the last potential support angle before the 91.55 main bottom.
Basically, look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over 92.30 and for a bearish tone to develop on a sustained move under 92.18.
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.