US Dollar Index News: DXY Rises Sharply Following Surprising Inflation Data

James Hyerczyk
Published: Feb 13, 2024, 14:58 GMT+00:00

DXY surges as Jan CPI exceeds forecasts with 3.1% rise, 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.269%, and strong growth may delay Fed rate cuts.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

Key Points

  • CPI data exceeds expectations, boosting U.S. Dollar.
  • Treasury yields spike with unexpected inflation rise.
  • Strong inflation may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.

U.S. Dollar Strengthens on CPI Data

The U.S. Dollar is experiencing a notable surge against major currencies following the release of January’s U.S. inflation data. This data, which indicated higher-than-expected inflation rates, has impacted Treasury yields and altered market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies.

At 14:26 GMT, the U.S. Dollar Index is trading 104.704, up 0.572 or +0.55%.

CPI Data Surpass Expectations

January’s consumer price index (CPI) showed a 0.3% increase from December, with a year-on-year rise of 3.1%. These figures exceeded forecasts by Dow Jones, which predicted a 0.2% monthly and 2.9% annual increase. Core prices, excluding food and energy, also rose unexpectedly, reaching 0.4% monthly and 3.9% annually, surpassing predictions of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively.

Treasury Yields React

The 10-year Treasury note yield witnessed a significant jump, reaching 4.269%, nearly a 10 basis point increase. The 2-year Treasury yield climbed over 13 basis points to 4.601%. These movements underline the inverse relationship between yields and prices, and indicate market adjustments to the unexpected inflation data.

Market Implications and Fed Strategy

Market participants had been monitoring for signs of cooling inflation to support the Federal Reserve’s potential rate cuts. However, Tuesday’s data casts doubt on the likelihood of multiple rate reductions this year, a strategy crucial for those optimistic about the equity market. Some investors now foresee the possibility of 10-year yields exceeding 5.00%, driven by persistent inflation, full employment, and strong growth, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts.

Short-Term Forecast

In the immediate future, the U.S. Dollar is bullish, in light of the strong inflation data. The anticipated January retail sales and producer price index reports are likely to reinforce these bullish sentiments. Investors should prepare for a continued rise in Treasury yields, reflecting a robust economic environment that could defer the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts.

Technical Analysis

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

After four days of consolidation, the U.S. Dollar Index is resuming its uptrend on Tuesday. With the market on the bullish side of both the 200-day moving average at 103.647 and the 50-day moving average at 103.050, upside momentum is well-supported.

And speaking of the upside, the daily chart shows the index has a clear shot at the next resistance target at 105.628.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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