US Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Gains on Iran Tensions & CPI Watch – Can GBP/USD and EUR/USD Reverse?

Market Overview

Wednesday, 11th of March 2026 – markets are caught straddling a mix of geopolitical, economic uncertainty and also a string of key economic data releases.

The Dollar’s Index has popped back up to 98.96, after earlier than expected bounce, though it was trading lower than that just a little while back. President Trump earlier spilled the beans that the Iran conflict could wrap up sooner rather than later – but that was quickly looked at by the Pentagon as pure hot air, which has had the dollar traders viewing the dollar as a safe haven more seriously.

But – we’re all waiting now for the February CPI numbers to drop – and the forecast has them coming in at 2.4%. If, however, the actual number comes in lower than forecast, then the dollar may find itself weakening again.

Regarding EUR/USD, the focus is on the ECB as it’s more likely than not to raise interest rates in June – there’s a 40% chance they’ll do that, bearing in mind that Eurozone core inflation has risen to 2.4%.

GBP/USD shot up to 1.3450 earlier today – and that’s all down to hopes that tensions in the Middle East may be easing – and that should make for lower energy-related inflation for the UK – at least that’s the idea.

However the pair is having its gains capped by some not-so-brilliant UK economic data – plus; the looming local elections are causing a fair amount of uncertainty. There’s also talk of the Bank of England possibly cutting rates in Q2, and that’s keeping GBP/USD in a bit of a tight range.

US Dollar Index Outlook- DXY Nears $99 – Breakout or Pullback to $98.37?

The Dollar Index (DXY) is now rebounding within the confines of its ascending channel and its holding above that important support zone between $98.62 and $98.87, which is a Fibonacci area.

Price is now at the $99.18 resistance mark, and the RSI is finally turning upwards from what was mid range, suggesting that things are looking a little bit better for the bulls.

A break above $99.68 could really open things up and expose the $100.30 zone but if the price can’t break through then a pullback to $98.37 is looking a real possibility.

The 50 day moving average is still in place and that’s keeping the short term outlook looking good, as the pair remains firmly within the rising channel.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Will the $1.3400 mark hold or do we see a break down to $1.3300?

The GBP/USD is still being held back by this bearish line and that’s where the price is currently trading, near the $1.3400 support zone. The pair is also still making lower highs while that 50 day moving average is capping any attempts to make a comeback – that’s not a great sign for the bulls.

The RSI is finally starting to ease back towards the neutral zone which is telling us that the bulls are losing a bit of steam and a break below $1.3355 could open the way for a move down to $1.3300.

But if the price can get above $1.3500 and break that trend line then we might just see a change in the short term picture and a potential reversal.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast: $1.1600 Coming Under pressure – $1.1480 next?

The EUR/USD is currently trading within a downwards sloping channel, testing that important $1.1600 support zone. But the fact that the price is still below that 50 day moving average and that trendline resistance is still in place means the bears are still in the driving seat.

The RSI is now rolling over from what was mid range territory and this is telling us that the upside momentum is starting to fade and that is bad news for the bulls. A break below $1.1530 could really accelerate the move down and we could see the price drop to $1.1480.

On the other hand if the price can get above $1.1640 and find some buyers then we might see the price drop back and even expose the $1.1700 resistance zone.