USD/CAD Exchange Rate Prediction – The Dollar Continues to Rally

The dollar continues to trend higher versus the Loonie on Wednesday despite a pullback against most major currencies. As expected, Canadian CPI was unable to help the Loonie hold its ground. U.S. yields eased slightly, despite Tuesday’s higher than expected retail sales and import prices.

Technical analysis

On Wednesday, the dollar moved higher and is poised to test trend line resistance near 1.28. Support is near the 50-day moving average, 1.2530. The exchange rate formed a bull flag pattern which is a pause that refreshes higher. Short-term momentum has turned positive as the fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal. The exchange rate is overbought with the fast stochastic printing a reading of 96, above the overbought trigger level of 80. Medium-term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).

Canadian CPI Rise

The Consumer Price Index rose 4.7% year-over-year basis in October, which was in line with expectations. This increase in the CPI was the largest since February 2003. The increase follows a 4.4% gain in September. Transportation was up a robust 10%, mainly due to a 25% increase in fuel cost. Prices for passenger vehicles were up 6.1%. Parts, accessories, and supplies rose 3.6%. Excluding energy, CPI falls to 3.3%