Vivek Kumar
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The Indian rupee fell to a one-month low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, depreciating for the sixth straight day as rising oil prices weighed on the currency despite strength in domestic equity markets.

The USD/INR to an intraday high of 73.3730 – hit its weakest since May 14 – against the U.S. currency from the Monday’s close of 73.18. The rupee has lost 86 paise so far this month and weakened 51 paise in the six trading sessions.

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The dollar index, a measurement of the dollar’s value relative to six foreign currencies, rose 0.07% to 90.587. The index is expected to rise further after the relatively impressive US consumer price index data, which rose by 5% year-on-year – the highest since 2008.

The rupee was also under some pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting scheduled this week. Traders remain cautious ahead of the policy decision as any unexpected hawkish surprise would lift the greenback.

The Indian equity market witnessed a strong influx of retail investors, pushing the benchmark BSE Sensex index ended up 221.52 points, or 0.42% higher at 52,773.05, while the broader NSE Nifty advanced 57.40 points or 0.36% to close at 15,869.25.

On the other hand, global oil benchmark Brent futures rose 0.43% to $73.17 per barrel. However, foreign institutional investors were net sellers in the capital market on Monday as they offloaded shares worth Rs 503.51 crore, as per provisional data.

The Indian rupee was one of Asia’s best performers, having risen 2.3% in May, but lost ground last two week. The USD/INR is expected to rise over 1% to INR 74.00 against the U.S. dollar rate over the coming year.

Indian Rupee is expected to trade with negative bias amid strong dollar, surge in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. India CPI data showed inflation accelerated by 6.3% in May 2021 compared to 4.23% in April 2021. Inflation breached the Reserve Bank of India’s target range of 2-6% for first time in 5 months. Further, market participants fear that the second wave of covid-19 infection in India has dampened the expectation of quick economic recovery,” noted analysts at Sharekhan BNP Paribas.

“Furthermore, traders will remain cautious ahead of US FOMC meeting outcome and economic projections. However, sharp fall may be prevented as number of COVID-19 cases in India continued to decline. India reported daily new covid-19 cases below 1 lakh for 7th consecutive day. USDINR spot expected to trade in a range between 72.90 on lower side to 73.40 on higher side with an upward trend.”

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