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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, October 16, 2019

The US dollar pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, showing signs of resiliency by turning around as we approached the crucial 200 day EMA. At this point, it’s very likely that the market is going to try to break above that level, which of course would be an extraordinarily bullish sign. With this in mind, I believe that the market breaking above the highs from the Friday session could open up the door to the ¥110 level, although there is a significant amount of noise just above the 200 day EMA from previous trading. With that in mind, the market could get an external catalyst, perhaps due to earnings season.

USD/JPY Video 16.10.19

The market should find a bit of support based upon the last couple of candlesticks, but if we suddenly get a shift to a major “risk off” scenario, breaking down below the hammer from the Monday session could open up quite a bit of selling. It certainly looks as if the resiliency is something to be paid attention to though, and therefore a breakout is something that you would have to pay a serious amount of attention to. Ultimately, this is a market that should make a relatively strong move sooner or later, which will certainly have a lot to do with earnings season and the general attitude of traders as far as risk appetite is concerned. Keep in mind that the Brexit, US/China trade talks, and a whole host of other issues could have traders running to the safety of the Japanese yen. All things being equal though, it looks as if the buyers are really pressing their luck.

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