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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, December 31, 2018

The US dollar broke down during the trading session on Friday again, reaching towards the ¥110 level. That’s an area that had been important on the way up, so it should be important on the way down. I do think that we will eventually break down through there, especially if we have trouble in the global economy, as people are starting to worry about. The situation has been very difficult globally right now, and quite frankly with the US/China trade relations being strained, it’s difficult to imagine that this pair will have a good time going higher. I believe that the 100 level ¥0.50 level above is going to offer significant resistance, especially considering that the 200 day EMA is just above that level. Ultimately, once we break down below the ¥110 level, then I think it opens the door to the ¥108 level underneath.

USD/JPY Video 31.12.18

It is the end of the year, so it’s possible that we will see a lot of choppiness, and it’s also possible that moves could be somewhat erratic. Nonetheless, I do believe that the Japanese yen will probably strengthen into 2019 with all of the issues, and of course the volatility in the stock markets. If we continue to see a bit of a run for safety, this pair will probably break down. If we break above the ¥112 level, then we may have an opportunity to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the ¥114.50 level. That is massive resistance though, and quite frankly I think it’s almost impossible to break above in this type of environment. Fading rallies should continue to be the way people trade this market.

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