USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar falls to close out the year

The US dollar fell below the ¥110 level during the trading session on New Year’s Eve, as we continue to see negativity in this market. I don’t see any reason to suspect that this market is going to turn around, at least not from a longer-term perspective.
Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, January 02, 2019

The US dollar fell significantly during the trading session on New Year’s Eve, as we pierced the ¥110 level. Because of that, I think it shows that we are ready to continue going lower, and I do believe that the 200 day EMA turning over shows signs of the trend changing completely. Most pundits believe that the Japanese yen will do quite well during the 2019 year, and I can make a serious argument for that as well. The first thing that I would bring up is that the Federal Reserve is looking to step away from any sense of hawkish in this, or at least has open the door to do so. That of course is US dollar negative.

USD/JPY Video 02.01.19

Beyond that, there are concerns about global growth, and the global economy in general. As long as that’s going to be the case, then should add more buyers looking towards the Japanese yen as well. I think at this point we are very likely to see this market try to reach towards the ¥108 level, but it may take some time to get there. Keep in mind that this market is very negative, but it can be very choppy. The ¥111.50 level above is massive resistance, and I think it’s not until we break above there that I would be worried about the downtrend. If we did do that, we could probably go to the ¥114.50 level. However, I give that about a 10% chance.

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