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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY daily chart, November 26, 2019

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday to kick off the week as we continue to see a lot of bullish pressure. At this point, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level just above is going to cause some issues, but at this point in time it’s very likely to get broken given enough of a catalyst. When we look at the USD/JPY pair, we often think of it as a risk barometer, which is exactly what it can be as the Japanese yen is considered to be the “safest currency” out there.

USD/JPY Video 26.11.19

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level currently sits at the ¥109.50 handle, which extends to the ¥110 level. At this point, the market looks very likely to try to get above there, but it may take several attempts. That’s okay, because quite frankly this would be a rather momentous move. At that point, the market is more than likely going to go looking towards the ¥111 level, and then eventually the ¥112.50 level. At this point, it does look as if we are going to continue towards that area, but we need some type of reason to celebrate. The most obvious one of course will be some type of positive news or perhaps even signing the “phase 1” part of the US/China trade deal. It should also be noted that this pair tends to move right along with the S&P 500, so if that breaks out it’s possible that could kick off the next move higher here as well. As far as selling is concerned, I’m not necessarily interested in doing so right now.

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