USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar struggles to keep gainsThe US dollar initially shot higher against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday, but ran into some resistance at the ¥109 level, to roll back just a bit. I think at this point it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of negativity as there had been so much technical damage done recently.
The US dollar try to rally initially during the day on Tuesday but found enough resistance near the ¥109 level to turn somewhat negative, as it looks like we have a real fight on our hands. I think we may see a bit of sideways action in the short term, as the market awaits the results of the US/China trade talks. Because of this, it’s very likely that the market participants will continue to be jittery, and very sensitive to headlines risks.
USD/JPY Video 09.01.19
If we can break above the ¥109 level decidedly, then I think the next major barrier is going to be found near the ¥110 level, which I do not expect this market to be able to overcome. We have recently rolled over rather decidedly, and have even formed a “death cross”, which is when the 50 day EMA crosses below the 200 day EMA. At this point, I believe that the Japanese yen will continue to strengthen this year, and this is the beginning salvo in that move. I am more than willing to sell this market, but quite frankly I would love to have an opportunity to do it closer to the ¥110 level. However, if we break the ¥108 level at this point, I’d be forced to start selling there as well. I have a target of ¥106, followed by the ¥105 level after that. Expect volatility, but I certainly think negativity will be the longer-term move.