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Christopher Lewis

The US dollar went back and forth against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Monday, as we have had a lot of noise overall. There was a bit of a “risk on” type of feel during the trading session as we kicked off the week, but it looks as if the market is simply going back and forth trying to figure out where we are going to go next. Looking at this chart, you can see that the 50 day EMA above is obviously offering dynamic resistance, but we also have the ¥106 level in the same area that could cause significant resistance, so I do believe that fading the rallies will probably continue to be the overall attitude.

USD/JPY Video 29.09.20

The ¥105 level is psychologically important but has been sliced through enough of the last several months that it is very likely that it will be but a blip on the radar as we fall. From that point, I would anticipate a “lower low.” In fact, we could even go as low as ¥102 if we get some type of major selloff. As for rallies, it is very unlikely that we will be able to hang onto them, but even if we did, it is not until the ¥107.50 level is broken to the upside that you could call it a true trend change. In other words, I do believe that we continue to fade the market every time we see signs of exhaustion on shorter-term charts, although I would also point out that this market is choppy in general so it is going to be difficult to hang onto a bigger move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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