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Christopher Lewis
USD/JPY weekly chart, November 25, 2019

The US dollar has gone back and forth during the week, dancing around the 50 week moving average, but at this point it looks like we are simply banging up against the crucial 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and if we can get above there, that would be a very bullish sign it’s in this market much higher. At that point I would anticipate a move towards the ¥111 level, which is a bit of a gap. Beyond that, we would then go looking towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level which is closer to the ¥112.50 level. That is certainly going to be a scenario that will attract a lot of attention and will be based upon some type of good news.

USD/JPY Video 25.11.19

I believe that good news will be the signing of the “phase 1 deal” between the United States and China. I don’t necessarily think that it’s the be-all and end-all of what’s going to happen, but it certainly would be a major driver of where we go in the short term. That would also be a continuation of the larger consolidation area that we have been in, so I do think that it would make a lot of sense to see that happen. Don’t be wrong, I don’t think this is going to be easy but it’s very likely that once we break above the ¥110 level, it will be a massive flood of money into the market and then perhaps a lot of momentum being picked up in the short term. With this I am cautiously optimistic but I’m also aware that it’s can it take some time.

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