USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Forecast – January 11, 2017

USDCAD also chose to consolidate and range for most of the day as the markets seem to be in a wait and watch mode for most of the day and not knowing which direction to take. The buyers and sellers seem to be very careful in committing themselves to any specific direction and they want to make doubly sure about the direction that the pair is likely to take before they jump in with their longs or shorts. We, as usual, continue to believe that the overall trend is still upwards and any correction in this pair should be taken as a chance to go long.

Yesterday, we saw the oil prices take a further hit as the production cut agreement between the various producers do not seem to be having the desired effect. The proper implementation is one thing but getting the desired effect out of it is a totally different matter. With that in doubt, we saw the oil prices crash yesterday and this kept the CAD on the backfoot. As a result of that, the CAD was not able to capitalise on the dollar weakness that was seen for a large part of the day and the pair continues to be in a deadlock with both the currencies either equally strong or equally weak at the same time and hence making progress in either direction, difficult.

Looking ahead to today, we do not have any major economic news from the US or the Canadian regions but we do have Trump addressing his first press conference since winning the elections and we have to see whether he says something that is likely to tip the balance. As far as the USDCAD pair is concerned, the balance could be tipped over mainly on his references to how he is going to treat the trade with the neighbours of USA which was one of his main campaign points.