Advertisement
Advertisement
USD/CAD Weekly Fundamental Analysis August 5 – 9, 2013 Forecast
By:
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0394 gaining near 130 points this week after opening at 1.0270 on Monday. Stronger
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The USD/CAD closed the week at 1.0394 gaining near 130 points this week after opening at 1.0270 on Monday. Stronger data from the US helped support the US dollar. The dollar rallied as a weaker-than-forecast unemployment report and the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep buying bonds failed to erase speculation that policy makers will being winding down the program this year.
The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index snapped three weeks of declines even as the Fed said persistently low inflation could hamper the economic expansion. Australia’s dollar declined as the nation boosted its budget-deficit forecast. The euro fell from a six-week high as the European Central Bank said interest rates may stay low for an extended period. The U.S. Census Bureau may report Aug. 6 that the trade deficit shrank in June.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Aug 02, 2013 |
1.0392 |
1.0347 |
1.0403 |
1.0340 |
0.43% |
|
Aug 01, 2013 |
1.0347 |
1.0284 |
1.0351 |
1.0265 |
0.61% |
|
Jul 31, 2013 |
1.0284 |
1.0300 |
1.0335 |
1.0247 |
-0.16% |
|
Jul 30, 2013 |
1.0300 |
1.0263 |
1.0311 |
1.0258 |
0.37% |
|
Jul 29, 2013 |
1.0262 |
1.0270 |
1.0284 |
1.0253 |
-0.08% |
A drop in gold prices and oil along with poor GDP expectations from Canada, weighed heavily on the Loonie. The CAD is expected to trade in a tight range this week but remains subject to the mountains of Chinese data due this week along with a decline in oil prices.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 29 – August 1 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and UD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul. 29 |
GBP |
CBI Distributive Trades Survey |
17 |
10 |
1 |
|
|
USD |
Pending Home Sales (MoM) |
-0.4% |
-1.0% |
5.8% |
|
Jul. 30 |
EUR |
GfK German Consumer Climate |
7.0 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
4.55% |
||
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.7% |
1.8% |
|
|
USD |
CB Consumer Confidence |
80.3 |
81.4 |
82.1 |
|
Jul. 31 |
EUR |
French Consumer Spending (MoM) |
-0.8% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
|
|
EUR |
German Unemployment Change |
-7K |
-4K |
-13K |
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.6% |
|
|
USD |
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change |
200K |
180K |
198K |
|
|
USD |
Employment Cost Index (QoQ) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
|
USD |
GDP Price Index (QoQ) |
0.7% |
1.1% |
1.7% |
|
|
USD |
GDP (QoQ) |
1.7% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
|
USD |
Chicago PMI |
52.3 |
54.0 |
51.6 |
|
|
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
Aug. 01 |
CNY |
Chinese Manufacturing PMI |
50.3 |
49.9 |
50.1 |
|
|
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
47.7 |
47.7 |
47.7 |
|
|
EUR |
Italian Manufacturing PMI |
50.4 |
49.8 |
49.1 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
49.7 |
49.8 |
49.8 |
|
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
50.7 |
50.3 |
50.3 |
|
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
50.3 |
50.1 |
50.1 |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing PMI |
54.6 |
52.8 |
52.9 |
|
|
GBP |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
GBP |
BoE QE Total |
375B |
375B |
375B |
|
|
EUR |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.50% |
0.50% |
0.50% |
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
326K |
345K |
345K |
|
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
2951K |
2994K |
3003K |
|
|
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Index |
55.4 |
52.0 |
50.9 |
|
Aug. 02 |
GBP |
Nationwide HPI (MoM) |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
|
|
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
-64.9K |
-80.0K |
-127.2K |
|
|
GBP |
Construction PMI |
57.0 |
51.5 |
51.0 |
|
|
USD |
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
-0.1% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
|
USD |
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls |
162K |
184K |
188K |
|
|
USD |
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
|
|
USD |
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
34.5 |
34.5 |
|
|
USD |
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
161K |
189K |
196K |
Historical: From 2010 to present
Highest: 1.0853 CAD on May 25, 2010.
Average: 1.0090 CAD over this period.
Lowest: 0.9407 CAD on Jan 26, 2011.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug. 05 |
9:28 |
GBP |
56.9 |
||
|
10:00 |
EUR |
-0.5% |
1.0% |
||
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
53.0 |
52.2 |
|
|
Aug. 06 |
09:00 |
EUR |
-3.2% |
-4.2% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
|||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.8% |
||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.3% |
||
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-2.9% |
||
|
|
11:00 |
EUR |
0.9% |
-1.3% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-44.1B |
-45.0B |
|
|
Aug. 07 |
11:00 |
EUR |
0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
Aug. 09 |
02:30 |
CNY |
2.7% |
2.7% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
CNY |
-2.2% |
-2.7% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
CNY |
-0.2% |
||
|
|
06:30 |
CNY |
20.0% |
20.1% |
|
|
|
06:30 |
CNY |
9.0% |
8.9% |
|
|
|
06:30 |
CNY |
13.3% |
13.3% |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Aug 06 09:10 Norway
Aug 06 09:15 Austria
Aug 06 09:30 UK
Aug 06 14:30 UK
Aug 06 17:00 US
Aug 07 09:30 Germany
Aug 07 10:00 Norway
Aug 07 15:30 Italy
Aug 07 17:00 US
Aug 08 09:30 UK
Aug 08 15:30 Italy
Aug 08 17:00 US
Aug 09 00:30 Japan
Aug 09 10:30 Belgium
About the Author
Barry Normanauthor
Advertisement